Updated: Nov 3, 2026
Public record
Every bet, one by one, measured with the same rule as each client's record: units (1 unit = 1 stake) and parlays with the tennis policy. Odds are the ones bookmakers actually published.
How we measureThe model
Games analyzed 2,641 · Winner accuracy 67.5 %
- Games analyzed
- 2,641
- Winner accuracy
- 67.5 %
How each figure is calculated
- Games analyzed
- NBA games the model forecast, week by week, without knowing the result.
- Winner accuracy
- Did the model get which team would win? It measures the model, not the money.
The bets
Tickets 2,014 · ROI +7.1 % · P&L +143.46 u
- ROI
- +7.1 %
- P&L
- +143.46 u
- Worst drawdown
- −28.75 u
How each figure is calculated
- ROI
- Net profit divided by total amount staked, flat stake, over every recorded bet.
- P&L
- In units: 1 unit = 1 stake, so the record does not depend on how much anyone bets.
- Worst drawdown
- The deepest fall from a high. This is what has to be sat through.
Cumulative balance of the public record
- Balance
- Worst drawdown −28.75 u· Oct 22 – Nov 26
- Now +143.46 u
- Tickets
- 2,014
- Accuracy
- 59.5 %
- Odds
- 1.83
- Profit factor
- 1.18
- Variability
- 12.71
How each figure is calculated
- Accuracy
- Tickets won over tickets settled. A parlay counts as a single ticket: it wins only if every leg wins.
- Profit factor
- Winnings divided by losses. Above 1 the record makes money.
- Variability
- How much the result swings around its mean. The higher it is, the noisier and less reliable the ROI still is.
Breakdowns
By month, market and line
Result by month
- Profit
- Loss
Nov 20265 tickets
Oct 202634 tickets
Jun 20261 tickets
May 202618 tickets
Apr 202648 tickets
Feb 2026195 tickets
Jan 2026243 tickets
Dec 2025195 tickets
−5.00 u
+8.13 u
+0.32 u
+4.34 u
−1.55 u
+7.33 u
+45.36 u
+16.93 u
| Month | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 5 | 0.0 % | −5.00 u | -100.0 % |
| Oct 2026 | 34 | 64.7 % | +8.13 u | +23.9 % |
| Jun 2026 | 1 | 100.0 % | +0.32 u | +32.0 % |
| May 2026 | 18 | 88.9 % | +4.34 u | +24.1 % |
| Apr 2026 | 48 | 64.6 % | −1.55 u | -3.2 % |
| Feb 2026 | 195 | 56.9 % | +7.33 u | +3.8 % |
| Jan 2026 | 243 | 64.2 % | +45.36 u | +18.7 % |
| Dec 2025 | 195 | 60.0 % | +16.93 u | +8.7 % |
| Nov 2025 | 170 | 56.5 % | +3.78 u | +2.2 % |
| Oct 2025 | 46 | 56.5 % | +2.26 u | +4.9 % |
| May 2025 | 71 | 71.8 % | +1.99 u | +2.8 % |
| Apr 2025 | 33 | 81.8 % | +9.50 u | +28.8 % |
| Feb 2025 | 210 | 59.0 % | +16.12 u | +7.7 % |
| Jan 2025 | 264 | 62.1 % | +37.09 u | +14.1 % |
| Dec 2024 | 197 | 57.9 % | +15.09 u | +7.7 % |
| Nov 2024 | 215 | 51.2 % | −12.08 u | -5.6 % |
| Oct 2024 | 69 | 47.8 % | −6.14 u | -8.9 % |
| Total | 2014 | 59.5 % | +143.46 u | +7.1 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by market
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 59.5 %
Total points2014 tickets
60 %
| Market | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 2014 | 59.5 % | +143.46 u | +7.1 % |
| Total | 2014 | 59.5 % | +143.46 u | +7.1 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by line
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 59.5 %
Total points2014 tickets
60 %
| Line | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 2014 | 59.5 % | +143.46 u | +7.1 % |
| Total | 2014 | 59.5 % | +143.46 u | +7.1 % |
Handicap lines are grouped by the cushion of the chosen team: “+10.5 or more” means the pick wins even if its team loses by 10 or fewer.
Record, bet by bet
3,783 rows · Page 76 of 76
- Oct 25 · Orlando Magic vs Brooklyn NetsWin1st quarter · Under 59.51.37—
- Oct 25 · Atlanta Hawks vs Charlotte HornetsWin1st quarter · Under 62.5×1.97+0.97 u
- Oct 25 · Portland Trail Blazers vs New Orleans PelicansWin1st half · Under 113.51.41—
- Oct 24 · Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City ThunderWin1st quarter · Under 61.5×1.92+0.92 u
- Oct 24 · Washington Wizards vs Boston CelticsWin1st quarter · Over 54.51.37—
- Oct 24 · Sacramento Kings vs Minnesota TimberwolvesLoss1st quarter · Under 59.5×1.97−1.00 u
- Oct 24 · Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City ThunderWin1st half · Under 119.51.44—
- Oct 23 · Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland CavaliersWin1st half · Under 120.5×1.86+0.86 u
- Oct 23 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Chicago BullsWinUnder 237.51.32—
- Oct 23 · Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland CavaliersLoss1st quarter · Under 61.5×1.83−1.00 u
- Oct 23 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Chicago BullsWinUnder 236.51.31—
- Oct 23 · Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland CavaliersLoss1st half · Under 119.5×2.86−1.00 u
- Oct 23 · Philadelphia 76ers vs Milwaukee BucksLoss1st half · Over 105.51.40—
- Oct 23 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Chicago BullsWin1st half · Under 117.51.41—
- Oct 23 · Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland CavaliersWin1st half · Under 118.5×2.04+1.04 u
- Oct 23 · Detroit Pistons vs Indiana PacersWin1st half · Under 122.51.45—
- Oct 23 · Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland CavaliersLoss1st quarter · Under 60.5×1.95−1.00 u
- Oct 23 · Philadelphia 76ers vs Milwaukee BucksLoss1st quarter · Over 51.51.38—
- Oct 23 · Detroit Pistons vs Indiana PacersWin1st quarter · Under 62.5×1.93+0.93 u
- Oct 23 · Houston Rockets vs Charlotte HornetsWin1st quarter · Under 63.51.38—
- Oct 23 · Houston Rockets vs Charlotte HornetsLoss1st quarter · Over 53.5×1.89−1.00 u
- Oct 23 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Golden State WarriorsWin1st quarter · Under 59.51.38—
- Oct 23 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Phoenix SunsWin1st quarter · Under 59.5×1.89+0.89 u
- Oct 23 · Utah Jazz vs Memphis GrizzliesWin1st quarter · Under 60.51.38—
- Oct 23 · Miami Heat vs Orlando MagicWin1st quarter · Over 48.5×1.88+0.88 u
- Oct 23 · Atlanta Hawks vs Brooklyn NetsWin1st quarter · Over 52.51.37—
- Oct 23 · Detroit Pistons vs Indiana PacersLoss1st half · Under 121.5×2.10−1.00 u
- Oct 23 · Philadelphia 76ers vs Milwaukee BucksLoss1st half · Over 106.51.45—
- Oct 22 · Los Angeles Lakers vs Minnesota TimberwolvesLossOver 210.5×1.66−1.00 u
- Oct 22 · Boston Celtics vs New York KnicksLossUnder 234.51.29—
- Oct 22 · Los Angeles Lakers vs Minnesota TimberwolvesLoss1st quarter · Over 49.51.37−1.00 u
- Oct 22 · Los Angeles Lakers vs Minnesota TimberwolvesLoss1st half · Over 101.51.40−1.00 u
- Oct 22 · Los Angeles Lakers vs Minnesota TimberwolvesLoss1st half · Over 102.51.44−1.00 u
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