Updated: Nov 3, 2026
Public record
Every bet, one by one, measured with the same rule as each client's record: units (1 unit = 1 stake) and parlays with the tennis policy. Odds are the ones bookmakers actually published.
How we measureThe model
Games analyzed 2,641 · Winner accuracy 67.5 %
- Games analyzed
- 2,641
- Winner accuracy
- 67.5 %
How each figure is calculated
- Games analyzed
- NBA games the model forecast, week by week, without knowing the result.
- Winner accuracy
- Did the model get which team would win? It measures the model, not the money.
The bets
Tickets 2,014 · ROI +7.1 % · P&L +143.46 u
- ROI
- +7.1 %
- P&L
- +143.46 u
- Worst drawdown
- −28.75 u
How each figure is calculated
- ROI
- Net profit divided by total amount staked, flat stake, over every recorded bet.
- P&L
- In units: 1 unit = 1 stake, so the record does not depend on how much anyone bets.
- Worst drawdown
- The deepest fall from a high. This is what has to be sat through.
Cumulative balance of the public record
- Balance
- Worst drawdown −28.75 u· Oct 22 – Nov 26
- Now +143.46 u
- Tickets
- 2,014
- Accuracy
- 59.5 %
- Odds
- 1.83
- Profit factor
- 1.18
- Variability
- 12.71
How each figure is calculated
- Accuracy
- Tickets won over tickets settled. A parlay counts as a single ticket: it wins only if every leg wins.
- Profit factor
- Winnings divided by losses. Above 1 the record makes money.
- Variability
- How much the result swings around its mean. The higher it is, the noisier and less reliable the ROI still is.
Breakdowns
By month, market and line
Result by month
- Profit
- Loss
Nov 20265 tickets
Oct 202634 tickets
Jun 20261 tickets
May 202618 tickets
Apr 202648 tickets
Feb 2026195 tickets
Jan 2026243 tickets
Dec 2025195 tickets
−5.00 u
+8.13 u
+0.32 u
+4.34 u
−1.55 u
+7.33 u
+45.36 u
+16.93 u
| Month | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 5 | 0.0 % | −5.00 u | -100.0 % |
| Oct 2026 | 34 | 64.7 % | +8.13 u | +23.9 % |
| Jun 2026 | 1 | 100.0 % | +0.32 u | +32.0 % |
| May 2026 | 18 | 88.9 % | +4.34 u | +24.1 % |
| Apr 2026 | 48 | 64.6 % | −1.55 u | -3.2 % |
| Feb 2026 | 195 | 56.9 % | +7.33 u | +3.8 % |
| Jan 2026 | 243 | 64.2 % | +45.36 u | +18.7 % |
| Dec 2025 | 195 | 60.0 % | +16.93 u | +8.7 % |
| Nov 2025 | 170 | 56.5 % | +3.78 u | +2.2 % |
| Oct 2025 | 46 | 56.5 % | +2.26 u | +4.9 % |
| May 2025 | 71 | 71.8 % | +1.99 u | +2.8 % |
| Apr 2025 | 33 | 81.8 % | +9.50 u | +28.8 % |
| Feb 2025 | 210 | 59.0 % | +16.12 u | +7.7 % |
| Jan 2025 | 264 | 62.1 % | +37.09 u | +14.1 % |
| Dec 2024 | 197 | 57.9 % | +15.09 u | +7.7 % |
| Nov 2024 | 215 | 51.2 % | −12.08 u | -5.6 % |
| Oct 2024 | 69 | 47.8 % | −6.14 u | -8.9 % |
| Total | 2014 | 59.5 % | +143.46 u | +7.1 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by market
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 59.5 %
Total points2014 tickets
60 %
| Market | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 2014 | 59.5 % | +143.46 u | +7.1 % |
| Total | 2014 | 59.5 % | +143.46 u | +7.1 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by line
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 59.5 %
Total points2014 tickets
60 %
| Line | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 2014 | 59.5 % | +143.46 u | +7.1 % |
| Total | 2014 | 59.5 % | +143.46 u | +7.1 % |
Handicap lines are grouped by the cushion of the chosen team: “+10.5 or more” means the pick wins even if its team loses by 10 or fewer.
Record, bet by bet
3,783 rows · Page 52 of 76
- Jan 17 · Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto RaptorsWin1st quarter · Over 51.51.36—
- Jan 17 · Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City ThunderWinUnder 233.5×1.86+0.86 u
- Jan 17 · New York Knicks vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWin1st quarter · Under 57.51.41—
- Jan 17 · Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City ThunderWin1st quarter · Under 59.5×1.86+0.86 u
- Jan 17 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Utah JazzWin1st quarter · Over 51.51.36—
- Jan 17 · Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City ThunderWinUnder 232.5×1.86+0.86 u
- Jan 17 · Chicago Bulls vs Charlotte HornetsWin1st quarter · Over 55.51.37—
- Jan 17 · Miami Heat vs Denver NuggetsLoss1st quarter · Over 53.5×1.95−1.00 u
- Jan 17 · San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis GrizzliesLoss1st half · Under 122.51.41—
- Jan 16 · Sacramento Kings vs Houston RocketsWin1st quarter · Under 59.51.38+0.38 u
- Jan 15 · Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta HawksWin1st half · Under 129.51.50+0.50 u
- Jan 15 · Denver Nuggets vs Houston RocketsLossUnder 235.01.55−1.00 u
- Jan 15 · Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta HawksWinUnder 253.5×1.86+0.86 u
- Jan 15 · Denver Nuggets vs Houston RocketsWinUnder 238.01.41—
- Jan 15 · Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta HawksWinUnder 252.5×1.78+0.78 u
- Jan 15 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas MavericksWinUnder 235.51.31—
- Jan 15 · Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta HawksWinUnder 251.5×1.75+0.75 u
- Jan 15 · Denver Nuggets vs Houston RocketsWinUnder 237.51.25—
- Jan 15 · Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta HawksWin1st half · Under 131.5×2.04+1.04 u
- Jan 15 · Denver Nuggets vs Houston RocketsWinUnder 237.01.45—
- Jan 15 · Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta HawksLoss1st quarter · Under 67.5×1.88−1.00 u
- Jan 15 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas MavericksLossUnder 234.51.36—
- Jan 15 · Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta HawksWin1st half · Under 130.5×1.86+0.86 u
- Jan 15 · Denver Nuggets vs Houston RocketsWinUnder 236.51.29—
- Jan 15 · Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta HawksLossUnder 248.5×1.79−1.00 u
- Jan 15 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas MavericksLossUnder 233.51.38—
- Jan 15 · Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta HawksWin1st quarter · Under 66.5×1.99+0.99 u
- Jan 15 · Milwaukee Bucks vs Orlando MagicWin1st quarter · Over 49.51.38—
- Jan 15 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas MavericksLossUnder 232.5×2.02−1.00 u
- Jan 15 · Milwaukee Bucks vs Orlando MagicWin1st half · Over 102.51.40—
- Jan 15 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas MavericksWin1st quarter · Under 61.5×1.93+0.93 u
- Jan 15 · San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis GrizzliesWin1st quarter · Under 63.51.38—
- Jan 15 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas MavericksLoss1st half · Under 120.5×1.96−1.00 u
- Jan 15 · Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta HawksWin1st quarter · Under 65.51.39—
- Jan 15 · Milwaukee Bucks vs Orlando MagicWin1st quarter · Under 59.5×1.88+0.88 u
- Jan 15 · Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State WarriorsWin1st quarter · Under 57.51.37—
- Jan 15 · Toronto Raptors vs Boston CelticsLoss1st quarter · Over 54.5×1.99−1.00 u
- Jan 15 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas MavericksLoss1st half · Under 119.51.45—
- Jan 15 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas MavericksLoss1st half · Over 106.5×1.94−1.00 u
- Jan 15 · Denver Nuggets vs Houston RocketsLoss1st half · Under 116.51.35—
- Jan 14 · Chicago Bulls vs New Orleans PelicansWinOver 229.5×1.69+0.69 u
- Jan 14 · Atlanta Hawks vs Phoenix SunsWinOver 224.51.31—
- Jan 14 · Philadelphia 76ers vs Oklahoma City ThunderLossUnder 228.5×1.72−1.00 u
- Jan 14 · Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland CavaliersLossUnder 242.51.32—
- Jan 14 · Dallas Mavericks vs Denver NuggetsWin1st quarter · Over 54.5×1.86+0.86 u
- Jan 14 · Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland CavaliersWin1st quarter · Over 51.51.36—
- Jan 14 · Atlanta Hawks vs Phoenix SunsLoss1st half · Over 109.5×1.95−1.00 u
- Jan 14 · Philadelphia 76ers vs Oklahoma City ThunderLoss1st quarter · Under 57.51.38—
- Jan 14 · Milwaukee Bucks vs Sacramento KingsWin1st quarter · Over 53.5×1.90+0.90 u
- Jan 14 · Chicago Bulls vs New Orleans PelicansWin1st quarter · Over 54.51.38—