Updated: Nov 3, 2026
Public record
Every bet, one by one, measured with the same rule as each client's record: units (1 unit = 1 stake) and parlays with the tennis policy. Odds are the ones bookmakers actually published.
How we measureThe model
Games analyzed 2,641 · Winner accuracy 67.5 %
- Games analyzed
- 2,641
- Winner accuracy
- 67.5 %
How each figure is calculated
- Games analyzed
- NBA games the model forecast, week by week, without knowing the result.
- Winner accuracy
- Did the model get which team would win? It measures the model, not the money.
The bets
Tickets 2,014 · ROI +7.1 % · P&L +143.46 u
- ROI
- +7.1 %
- P&L
- +143.46 u
- Worst drawdown
- −28.75 u
How each figure is calculated
- ROI
- Net profit divided by total amount staked, flat stake, over every recorded bet.
- P&L
- In units: 1 unit = 1 stake, so the record does not depend on how much anyone bets.
- Worst drawdown
- The deepest fall from a high. This is what has to be sat through.
Cumulative balance of the public record
- Balance
- Worst drawdown −28.75 u· Oct 22 – Nov 26
- Now +143.46 u
- Tickets
- 2,014
- Accuracy
- 59.5 %
- Odds
- 1.83
- Profit factor
- 1.18
- Variability
- 12.71
How each figure is calculated
- Accuracy
- Tickets won over tickets settled. A parlay counts as a single ticket: it wins only if every leg wins.
- Profit factor
- Winnings divided by losses. Above 1 the record makes money.
- Variability
- How much the result swings around its mean. The higher it is, the noisier and less reliable the ROI still is.
Breakdowns
By month, market and line
Result by month
- Profit
- Loss
Nov 20265 tickets
Oct 202634 tickets
Jun 20261 tickets
May 202618 tickets
Apr 202648 tickets
Feb 2026195 tickets
Jan 2026243 tickets
Dec 2025195 tickets
−5.00 u
+8.13 u
+0.32 u
+4.34 u
−1.55 u
+7.33 u
+45.36 u
+16.93 u
| Month | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 5 | 0.0 % | −5.00 u | -100.0 % |
| Oct 2026 | 34 | 64.7 % | +8.13 u | +23.9 % |
| Jun 2026 | 1 | 100.0 % | +0.32 u | +32.0 % |
| May 2026 | 18 | 88.9 % | +4.34 u | +24.1 % |
| Apr 2026 | 48 | 64.6 % | −1.55 u | -3.2 % |
| Feb 2026 | 195 | 56.9 % | +7.33 u | +3.8 % |
| Jan 2026 | 243 | 64.2 % | +45.36 u | +18.7 % |
| Dec 2025 | 195 | 60.0 % | +16.93 u | +8.7 % |
| Nov 2025 | 170 | 56.5 % | +3.78 u | +2.2 % |
| Oct 2025 | 46 | 56.5 % | +2.26 u | +4.9 % |
| May 2025 | 71 | 71.8 % | +1.99 u | +2.8 % |
| Apr 2025 | 33 | 81.8 % | +9.50 u | +28.8 % |
| Feb 2025 | 210 | 59.0 % | +16.12 u | +7.7 % |
| Jan 2025 | 264 | 62.1 % | +37.09 u | +14.1 % |
| Dec 2024 | 197 | 57.9 % | +15.09 u | +7.7 % |
| Nov 2024 | 215 | 51.2 % | −12.08 u | -5.6 % |
| Oct 2024 | 69 | 47.8 % | −6.14 u | -8.9 % |
| Total | 2014 | 59.5 % | +143.46 u | +7.1 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by market
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 59.5 %
Total points2014 tickets
60 %
| Market | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 2014 | 59.5 % | +143.46 u | +7.1 % |
| Total | 2014 | 59.5 % | +143.46 u | +7.1 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by line
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 59.5 %
Total points2014 tickets
60 %
| Line | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 2014 | 59.5 % | +143.46 u | +7.1 % |
| Total | 2014 | 59.5 % | +143.46 u | +7.1 % |
Handicap lines are grouped by the cushion of the chosen team: “+10.5 or more” means the pick wins even if its team loses by 10 or fewer.
Record, bet by bet
3,783 rows · Page 27 of 76
- Dec 11 · Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles ClippersWinUnder 232.51.36—
- Dec 10 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix SunsWinUnder 236.5×1.80+0.80 u
- Dec 10 · Los Angeles Lakers vs San Antonio SpursWinOver 227.51.36—
- Dec 10 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix SunsWinUnder 235.5×1.85+0.85 u
- Dec 10 · Los Angeles Lakers vs San Antonio SpursWinOver 228.51.36—
- Dec 10 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix SunsWinUnder 234.5×1.80+0.80 u
- Dec 10 · Los Angeles Lakers vs San Antonio SpursWinOver 229.51.36—
- Dec 10 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix SunsWinUnder 233.5×1.80+0.80 u
- Dec 10 · Los Angeles Lakers vs San Antonio SpursWin1st quarter · Over 57.51.36—
- Dec 10 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix SunsWinUnder 232.5×1.90+0.90 u
- Dec 10 · Los Angeles Lakers vs San Antonio SpursWinUnder 251.51.40—
- Dec 10 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix SunsWin1st quarter · Under 62.51.36+0.36 u
- Dec 09 · Orlando Magic vs Miami HeatLoss1st quarter · Over 55.51.37−1.00 u
- Dec 09 · Orlando Magic vs Miami HeatWin1st quarter · Under 65.51.38+0.38 u
- Dec 08 · Indiana Pacers vs Sacramento KingsLossUnder 245.5×1.83−1.00 u
- Dec 08 · Minnesota Timberwolves vs Phoenix SunsLoss1st quarter · Over 53.51.41—
- Dec 08 · Indiana Pacers vs Sacramento KingsWinUnder 244.51.31+0.31 u
- Dec 07 · Utah Jazz vs Oklahoma City ThunderWin1st quarter · Over 53.5×1.85+0.85 u
- Dec 07 · Philadelphia 76ers vs Los Angeles LakersWinUnder 246.51.31—
- Dec 07 · New York Knicks vs Orlando MagicWinUnder 241.5×1.91+0.91 u
- Dec 07 · Philadelphia 76ers vs Los Angeles LakersWin1st half · Under 127.51.45—
- Dec 07 · Utah Jazz vs Oklahoma City ThunderWin1st quarter · Over 54.5×2.90+1.90 u
- Dec 07 · New York Knicks vs Orlando MagicWin1st half · Under 125.51.45—
- Dec 07 · Philadelphia 76ers vs Los Angeles LakersWin1st half · Under 126.51.45—
- Dec 07 · Toronto Raptors vs Boston CelticsLoss1st quarter · Under 62.5×1.93−1.00 u
- Dec 07 · New York Knicks vs Orlando MagicLoss1st quarter · Under 64.51.38—
- Dec 07 · Philadelphia 76ers vs Los Angeles LakersWin1st quarter · Under 65.5×1.89+0.89 u
- Dec 07 · New York Knicks vs Orlando MagicWin1st quarter · Over 54.51.37—
- Dec 07 · Philadelphia 76ers vs Los Angeles LakersWin1st quarter · Over 55.5×1.89+0.89 u
- Dec 07 · Charlotte Hornets vs Denver NuggetsWin1st quarter · Over 52.51.38—
- Dec 06 · Washington Wizards vs Atlanta HawksWinOver 224.5×1.66+0.66 u
- Dec 06 · Dallas Mavericks vs Houston RocketsWinUnder 234.51.29—
- Dec 06 · Miami Heat vs Sacramento KingsWinOver 228.5×1.77+0.77 u
- Dec 06 · Dallas Mavericks vs Houston RocketsWin1st quarter · Under 59.51.37—
- Dec 06 · Dallas Mavericks vs Houston RocketsWinUnder 233.5×1.79+0.79 u
- Dec 06 · Brooklyn Nets vs New Orleans PelicansWin1st quarter · Under 60.51.37—
- Dec 06 · Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State WarriorsWin1st quarter · Under 60.5×1.92+0.92 u
- Dec 06 · Washington Wizards vs Atlanta HawksWin1st quarter · Over 56.51.40—
- Dec 06 · Dallas Mavericks vs Houston RocketsWin1st quarter · Under 58.5×1.92+0.92 u
- Dec 06 · Miami Heat vs Sacramento KingsWin1st quarter · Over 57.51.40—
- Dec 05 · Chicago Bulls vs Indiana PacersLoss1st half · Under 125.5×2.73−1.00 u
- Dec 05 · Houston Rockets vs Phoenix SunsWinUnder 232.51.30—
- Dec 05 · Atlanta Hawks vs Denver NuggetsLoss1st quarter · Under 63.51.45—
- Dec 05 · Chicago Bulls vs Indiana PacersWin1st quarter · Under 64.5×1.87+0.87 u
- Dec 05 · New York Knicks vs Utah JazzWinOver 229.51.30—
- Dec 05 · Chicago Bulls vs Indiana PacersWinUnder 248.5×1.79+0.79 u
- Dec 05 · Atlanta Hawks vs Denver NuggetsWin1st quarter · Under 64.51.38—
- Dec 05 · Chicago Bulls vs Indiana PacersWinUnder 247.5×1.81+0.81 u
- Dec 05 · Houston Rockets vs Phoenix SunsWin1st quarter · Under 61.51.37—
- Dec 05 · Chicago Bulls vs Indiana PacersWin1st quarter · Under 63.5×1.93+0.93 u