Updated: Nov 3, 2026

Public record

Every bet, one by one, measured with the same rule as each client's record: units (1 unit = 1 stake) and parlays with the tennis policy. Odds are the ones bookmakers actually published.

How we measure

Live record Backtest 2024-2026

The model

Games analyzed 2,641 · Winner accuracy 67.5 %

Games analyzed: 2,641; NBA games the model forecast, week by week, without knowing the result.
Winner accuracy: 67.5 %; Did the model get which team would win? It measures the model, not the money.

How each figure is calculated

Games analyzed: NBA games the model forecast, week by week, without knowing the result.
Winner accuracy: Did the model get which team would win? It measures the model, not the money.

The bets

Tickets 2,014 · ROI +7.1 % · P&L +143.46 u

ROI: +7.1 %; Net profit divided by total amount staked, flat stake, over every recorded bet.
P&L: +143.46 u; In units: 1 unit = 1 stake, so the record does not depend on how much anyone bets.
Worst drawdown: −28.75 u; The deepest fall from a high. This is what has to be sat through.

How each figure is calculated

ROI: Net profit divided by total amount staked, flat stake, over every recorded bet.
P&L: In units: 1 unit = 1 stake, so the record does not depend on how much anyone bets.
Worst drawdown: The deepest fall from a high. This is what has to be sat through.

Cumulative balance of the public record

Balance
Worst drawdown −28.75 u· Oct 22 – Nov 26
Now +143.46 u

Cumulative balance of the record, bet by bet, in units (1 u = 1 stake). The band marks the worst fall from a high.

Tickets: 2,014
Accuracy: 59.5 %; Tickets won over tickets settled. A parlay counts as a single ticket: it wins only if every leg wins.
Odds: 1.83
Profit factor: 1.18; Winnings divided by losses. Above 1 the record makes money.
Variability: 12.71; How much the result swings around its mean. The higher it is, the noisier and less reliable the ROI still is.

How each figure is calculated

Accuracy: Tickets won over tickets settled. A parlay counts as a single ticket: it wins only if every leg wins.
Profit factor: Winnings divided by losses. Above 1 the record makes money.
Variability: How much the result swings around its mean. The higher it is, the noisier and less reliable the ROI still is.

Breakdowns

By month, market and line

Result by month

Profit
Loss

Nov 20265 tickets

Oct 202634 tickets

Jun 20261 tickets

May 202618 tickets

Apr 202648 tickets

Feb 2026195 tickets

Jan 2026243 tickets

Dec 2025195 tickets

−5.00 u

+8.13 u

+0.32 u

+4.34 u

−1.55 u

+7.33 u

+45.36 u

+16.93 u

By month
Month	Tickets	Accuracy	P&L	ROI
Nov 2026	5	0.0 %	−5.00 u	-100.0 %
Oct 2026	34	64.7 %	+8.13 u	+23.9 %
Jun 2026	1	100.0 %	+0.32 u	+32.0 %
May 2026	18	88.9 %	+4.34 u	+24.1 %
Apr 2026	48	64.6 %	−1.55 u	-3.2 %
Feb 2026	195	56.9 %	+7.33 u	+3.8 %
Jan 2026	243	64.2 %	+45.36 u	+18.7 %
Dec 2025	195	60.0 %	+16.93 u	+8.7 %
Nov 2025	170	56.5 %	+3.78 u	+2.2 %
Oct 2025	46	56.5 %	+2.26 u	+4.9 %
May 2025	71	71.8 %	+1.99 u	+2.8 %
Apr 2025	33	81.8 %	+9.50 u	+28.8 %
Feb 2025	210	59.0 %	+16.12 u	+7.7 %
Jan 2025	264	62.1 %	+37.09 u	+14.1 %
Dec 2024	197	57.9 %	+15.09 u	+7.7 %
Nov 2024	215	51.2 %	−12.08 u	-5.6 %
Oct 2024	69	47.8 %	−6.14 u	-8.9 %
Total	2014	59.5 %	+143.46 u	+7.1 %

Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.

Hit rate by market

Hit rate
Overall hit rate 59.5 %

Total points2014 tickets

60 %

By market
Market	Tickets	Accuracy	P&L	ROI
Total points	2014	59.5 %	+143.46 u	+7.1 %
Total	2014	59.5 %	+143.46 u	+7.1 %

Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.

Hit rate by line

Hit rate
Overall hit rate 59.5 %

Total points2014 tickets

60 %

By line
Line	Tickets	Accuracy	P&L	ROI
Total points	2014	59.5 %	+143.46 u	+7.1 %
Total	2014	59.5 %	+143.46 u	+7.1 %

Handicap lines are grouped by the cushion of the chosen team: “+10.5 or more” means the pick wins even if its team loses by 10 or fewer.

Record, bet by bet

3,783 rows · Page 25 of 76

Dec 20 · Sacramento Kings vs Portland Trail BlazersWin
Under 246.51.36—
Dec 20 · Toronto Raptors vs Boston CelticsWin
Under 231.5×1.96+0.96 u
Dec 20 · Sacramento Kings vs Portland Trail BlazersWin
Under 245.51.41—
Dec 19 · Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City ThunderLoss
Over 222.01.57−1.00 u
Dec 19 · Boston Celtics vs Miami HeatLoss
Over 219.5×2.59−1.00 u
Dec 19 · New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ersWin
Over 217.51.36—
Dec 19 · Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City ThunderLoss
Over 223.51.40—
Dec 19 · Cleveland Cavaliers vs Chicago BullsLoss
Under 250.5×1.80−1.00 u
Dec 19 · Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City ThunderLoss
Over 220.51.32—
Dec 19 · Atlanta Hawks vs San Antonio SpursLoss
Under 250.5×1.84−1.00 u
Dec 19 · Cleveland Cavaliers vs Chicago BullsLoss
Under 249.51.35—
Dec 19 · Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City ThunderLoss
Over 221.5×1.88−1.00 u
Dec 19 · Atlanta Hawks vs San Antonio SpursWin
Under 249.51.36—
Dec 18 · Dallas Mavericks vs Detroit PistonsWin
Over 217.5×2.53+1.53 u
Dec 18 · Denver Nuggets vs Orlando MagicWin
Over 225.51.32—
Dec 18 · Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta HawksWin
1st half · Over 116.51.45—
Dec 18 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles ClippersLoss
Over 210.5×2.46−1.00 u
Dec 18 · Phoenix Suns vs Golden State WarriorsWin
Under 241.51.36—
Dec 18 · Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta HawksLoss
1st quarter · Under 66.51.37—
Dec 18 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Houston RocketsLoss
Over 223.5×1.85−1.00 u
Dec 18 · Utah Jazz vs Los Angeles LakersLoss
Under 254.51.36—
Dec 18 · Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto RaptorsWin
Under 230.5×1.93+0.93 u
Dec 18 · Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta HawksWin
1st half · Over 115.51.42—
Dec 18 · Indiana Pacers vs New York KnicksWin
Over 214.5×1.85+0.85 u
Dec 18 · Dallas Mavericks vs Detroit PistonsWin
Over 218.51.36—
Dec 18 · Denver Nuggets vs Orlando MagicWin
Over 226.5×1.81+0.81 u
Dec 18 · Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta HawksWin
1st quarter · Over 56.51.36—
Dec 18 · Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta HawksLoss
Under 251.5×1.85−1.00 u
Dec 18 · Phoenix Suns vs Golden State WarriorsWin
Under 240.51.36—
Dec 18 · Utah Jazz vs Los Angeles LakersLoss
Under 253.5×1.85−1.00 u
Dec 18 · Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto RaptorsWin
Under 229.51.36—
Dec 18 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles ClippersLoss
1st quarter · Under 59.5×1.85−1.00 u
Dec 18 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Houston RocketsWin
Under 246.51.36—
Dec 17 · Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis GrizzliesWin
Under 242.5×1.80+0.80 u
Dec 17 · Chicago Bulls vs Cleveland CavaliersWin
Under 253.51.36—
Dec 17 · Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis GrizzliesWin
Under 241.51.32+0.32 u
Dec 17 · Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis GrizzliesWin
Under 240.51.36+0.36 u
Dec 17 · Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis GrizzliesWin
Under 237.51.42+0.42 u
Dec 15 · Miami Heat vs Toronto RaptorsLoss
Under 248.5×1.80−1.00 u
Dec 15 · Boston Celtics vs Detroit PistonsLoss
Over 218.51.32—
Dec 15 · Miami Heat vs Toronto RaptorsWin
Under 247.5×1.74+0.74 u
Dec 15 · Utah Jazz vs Dallas MavericksWin
Over 228.51.32—
Dec 15 · Miami Heat vs Toronto RaptorsWin
Under 246.5×1.86+0.86 u
Dec 15 · Utah Jazz vs Dallas MavericksWin
Over 229.51.37—
Dec 15 · Miami Heat vs Toronto RaptorsWin
Under 245.51.37+0.37 u
Dec 15 · Miami Heat vs Toronto RaptorsWin
1st quarter · Under 62.51.36+0.36 u
Dec 15 · Miami Heat vs Toronto RaptorsWin
Under 244.51.38+0.38 u
Dec 14 · Chicago Bulls vs New Orleans PelicansLoss
1st quarter · Over 56.5×1.80−1.00 u
Dec 14 · Minnesota Timberwolves vs Sacramento KingsLoss
Over 221.51.32—
Dec 14 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Golden State WarriorsLoss
Over 223.5×1.74−1.00 u

Date	Match	Pick	Odds	Result	P&L (u)	Cumulative (u)
Dec 20	Sacramento Kings vs Portland Trail Blazers	Under 246.5	1.36	Win	—	+71.28 u
Dec 20	Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics	Under 231.5	×1.96	Win	+0.96 u	+72.24 u
Dec 20	Sacramento Kings vs Portland Trail Blazers	Under 245.5	1.41	Win	—	+72.24 u
Dec 19	Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder	Over 222.0	1.57	Loss	−1.00 u	+71.49 u
Dec 19	Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat	Over 219.5	×2.59	Loss	−1.00 u	+70.49 u
Dec 19	New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers	Over 217.5	1.36	Win	—	+70.49 u
Dec 19	Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder	Over 223.5	1.40	Loss	—	+70.49 u
Dec 19	Cleveland Cavaliers vs Chicago Bulls	Under 250.5	×1.80	Loss	−1.00 u	+69.49 u
Dec 19	Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder	Over 220.5	1.32	Loss	—	+69.49 u
Dec 19	Atlanta Hawks vs San Antonio Spurs	Under 250.5	×1.84	Loss	−1.00 u	+68.49 u
Dec 19	Cleveland Cavaliers vs Chicago Bulls	Under 249.5	1.35	Loss	—	+68.49 u
Dec 19	Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder	Over 221.5	×1.88	Loss	−1.00 u	+67.49 u
Dec 19	Atlanta Hawks vs San Antonio Spurs	Under 249.5	1.36	Win	—	+67.49 u
Dec 18	Dallas Mavericks vs Detroit Pistons	Over 217.5	×2.53	Win	+1.53 u	+74.90 u
Dec 18	Denver Nuggets vs Orlando Magic	Over 225.5	1.32	Win	—	+74.90 u
Dec 18	Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks	1st half · Over 116.5	1.45	Win	—	+74.90 u
Dec 18	Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Clippers	Over 210.5	×2.46	Loss	−1.00 u	+73.90 u
Dec 18	Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors	Under 241.5	1.36	Win	—	+73.90 u
Dec 18	Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks	1st quarter · Under 66.5	1.37	Loss	—	+73.90 u
Dec 18	New Orleans Pelicans vs Houston Rockets	Over 223.5	×1.85	Loss	−1.00 u	+72.90 u
Dec 18	Utah Jazz vs Los Angeles Lakers	Under 254.5	1.36	Loss	—	+72.90 u
Dec 18	Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors	Under 230.5	×1.93	Win	+0.93 u	+73.83 u
Dec 18	Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks	1st half · Over 115.5	1.42	Win	—	+73.83 u
Dec 18	Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks	Over 214.5	×1.85	Win	+0.85 u	+74.68 u
Dec 18	Dallas Mavericks vs Detroit Pistons	Over 218.5	1.36	Win	—	+74.68 u
Dec 18	Denver Nuggets vs Orlando Magic	Over 226.5	×1.81	Win	+0.81 u	+75.49 u
Dec 18	Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks	1st quarter · Over 56.5	1.36	Win	—	+75.49 u
Dec 18	Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks	Under 251.5	×1.85	Loss	−1.00 u	+74.49 u
Dec 18	Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors	Under 240.5	1.36	Win	—	+74.49 u
Dec 18	Utah Jazz vs Los Angeles Lakers	Under 253.5	×1.85	Loss	−1.00 u	+73.49 u
Dec 18	Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors	Under 229.5	1.36	Win	—	+73.49 u
Dec 18	Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Clippers	1st quarter · Under 59.5	×1.85	Loss	−1.00 u	+72.49 u
Dec 18	New Orleans Pelicans vs Houston Rockets	Under 246.5	1.36	Win	—	+72.49 u
Dec 17	Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis Grizzlies	Under 242.5	×1.80	Win	+0.80 u	+72.28 u
Dec 17	Chicago Bulls vs Cleveland Cavaliers	Under 253.5	1.36	Win	—	+72.28 u
Dec 17	Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis Grizzlies	Under 241.5	1.32	Win	+0.32 u	+72.60 u
Dec 17	Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis Grizzlies	Under 240.5	1.36	Win	+0.36 u	+72.96 u
Dec 17	Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis Grizzlies	Under 237.5	1.42	Win	+0.42 u	+73.38 u
Dec 15	Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors	Under 248.5	×1.80	Loss	−1.00 u	+68.77 u
Dec 15	Boston Celtics vs Detroit Pistons	Over 218.5	1.32	Loss	—	+68.77 u
Dec 15	Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors	Under 247.5	×1.74	Win	+0.74 u	+69.51 u
Dec 15	Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks	Over 228.5	1.32	Win	—	+69.51 u
Dec 15	Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors	Under 246.5	×1.86	Win	+0.86 u	+70.37 u
Dec 15	Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks	Over 229.5	1.37	Win	—	+70.37 u
Dec 15	Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors	Under 245.5	1.37	Win	+0.37 u	+70.74 u
Dec 15	Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors	1st quarter · Under 62.5	1.36	Win	+0.36 u	+71.10 u
Dec 15	Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors	Under 244.5	1.38	Win	+0.38 u	+71.48 u
Dec 14	Chicago Bulls vs New Orleans Pelicans	1st quarter · Over 56.5	×1.80	Loss	−1.00 u	+75.07 u
Dec 14	Minnesota Timberwolves vs Sacramento Kings	Over 221.5	1.32	Loss	—	+75.07 u
Dec 14	Portland Trail Blazers vs Golden State Warriors	Over 223.5	×1.74	Loss	−1.00 u	+74.07 u

Page 25 of 76

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