Updated: Nov 3, 2026

Public record

Every bet, one by one, measured with the same rule as each client's record: units (1 unit = 1 stake) and parlays with the tennis policy. Odds are the ones bookmakers actually published.

How we measure

Live record Backtest 2024-2026

The model

Games analyzed 2,641 · Winner accuracy 67.5 %

Games analyzed: 2,641; NBA games the model forecast, week by week, without knowing the result.
Winner accuracy: 67.5 %; Did the model get which team would win? It measures the model, not the money.

How each figure is calculated

Games analyzed: NBA games the model forecast, week by week, without knowing the result.
Winner accuracy: Did the model get which team would win? It measures the model, not the money.

The bets

Tickets 2,014 · ROI +7.1 % · P&L +143.46 u

ROI: +7.1 %; Net profit divided by total amount staked, flat stake, over every recorded bet.
P&L: +143.46 u; In units: 1 unit = 1 stake, so the record does not depend on how much anyone bets.
Worst drawdown: −28.75 u; The deepest fall from a high. This is what has to be sat through.

How each figure is calculated

ROI: Net profit divided by total amount staked, flat stake, over every recorded bet.
P&L: In units: 1 unit = 1 stake, so the record does not depend on how much anyone bets.
Worst drawdown: The deepest fall from a high. This is what has to be sat through.

Cumulative balance of the public record

Balance
Worst drawdown −28.75 u· Oct 22 – Nov 26
Now +143.46 u

Cumulative balance of the record, bet by bet, in units (1 u = 1 stake). The band marks the worst fall from a high.

Tickets: 2,014
Accuracy: 59.5 %; Tickets won over tickets settled. A parlay counts as a single ticket: it wins only if every leg wins.
Odds: 1.83
Profit factor: 1.18; Winnings divided by losses. Above 1 the record makes money.
Variability: 12.71; How much the result swings around its mean. The higher it is, the noisier and less reliable the ROI still is.

How each figure is calculated

Accuracy: Tickets won over tickets settled. A parlay counts as a single ticket: it wins only if every leg wins.
Profit factor: Winnings divided by losses. Above 1 the record makes money.
Variability: How much the result swings around its mean. The higher it is, the noisier and less reliable the ROI still is.

Breakdowns

By month, market and line

Result by month

Profit
Loss

Nov 20265 tickets

Oct 202634 tickets

Jun 20261 tickets

May 202618 tickets

Apr 202648 tickets

Feb 2026195 tickets

Jan 2026243 tickets

Dec 2025195 tickets

−5.00 u

+8.13 u

+0.32 u

+4.34 u

−1.55 u

+7.33 u

+45.36 u

+16.93 u

By month
Month	Tickets	Accuracy	P&L	ROI
Nov 2026	5	0.0 %	−5.00 u	-100.0 %
Oct 2026	34	64.7 %	+8.13 u	+23.9 %
Jun 2026	1	100.0 %	+0.32 u	+32.0 %
May 2026	18	88.9 %	+4.34 u	+24.1 %
Apr 2026	48	64.6 %	−1.55 u	-3.2 %
Feb 2026	195	56.9 %	+7.33 u	+3.8 %
Jan 2026	243	64.2 %	+45.36 u	+18.7 %
Dec 2025	195	60.0 %	+16.93 u	+8.7 %
Nov 2025	170	56.5 %	+3.78 u	+2.2 %
Oct 2025	46	56.5 %	+2.26 u	+4.9 %
May 2025	71	71.8 %	+1.99 u	+2.8 %
Apr 2025	33	81.8 %	+9.50 u	+28.8 %
Feb 2025	210	59.0 %	+16.12 u	+7.7 %
Jan 2025	264	62.1 %	+37.09 u	+14.1 %
Dec 2024	197	57.9 %	+15.09 u	+7.7 %
Nov 2024	215	51.2 %	−12.08 u	-5.6 %
Oct 2024	69	47.8 %	−6.14 u	-8.9 %
Total	2014	59.5 %	+143.46 u	+7.1 %

Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.

Hit rate by market

Hit rate
Overall hit rate 59.5 %

Total points2014 tickets

60 %

By market
Market	Tickets	Accuracy	P&L	ROI
Total points	2014	59.5 %	+143.46 u	+7.1 %
Total	2014	59.5 %	+143.46 u	+7.1 %

Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.

Hit rate by line

Hit rate
Overall hit rate 59.5 %

Total points2014 tickets

60 %

By line
Line	Tickets	Accuracy	P&L	ROI
Total points	2014	59.5 %	+143.46 u	+7.1 %
Total	2014	59.5 %	+143.46 u	+7.1 %

Handicap lines are grouped by the cushion of the chosen team: “+10.5 or more” means the pick wins even if its team loses by 10 or fewer.

Record, bet by bet

3,783 rows · Page 24 of 76

Dec 23 · Minnesota Timberwolves vs New York KnicksWin
1st quarter · Over 53.51.36—
Dec 23 · Sacramento Kings vs Detroit PistonsLoss
Under 237.5×1.93−1.00 u
Dec 23 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Houston RocketsWin
1st half · Over 103.51.42—
Dec 23 · San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City ThunderLoss
Over 224.5×1.81−1.00 u
Dec 23 · Phoenix Suns vs Los Angeles LakersLoss
Under 237.51.36—
Dec 23 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Orlando MagicLoss
Under 242.5×1.85−1.00 u
Dec 23 · Utah Jazz vs Memphis GrizzliesLoss
Under 253.51.36—
Dec 23 · Cleveland Cavaliers vs New Orleans PelicansLoss
1st quarter · Over 57.5×1.85−1.00 u
Dec 23 · Miami Heat vs Toronto RaptorsWin
Under 238.51.36—
Dec 23 · Dallas Mavericks vs Denver NuggetsWin
Over 225.5×1.97+0.97 u
Dec 23 · Charlotte Hornets vs Washington WizardsWin
1st half · Under 127.51.45—
Dec 23 · San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City ThunderWin
1st half · Under 125.5×1.97+0.97 u
Dec 23 · Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago BullsWin
Over 243.51.36—
Dec 23 · San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City ThunderWin
1st quarter · Over 55.5×1.82+0.82 u
Dec 23 · Sacramento Kings vs Detroit PistonsWin
1st quarter · Under 63.51.36—
Dec 23 · Cleveland Cavaliers vs New Orleans PelicansWin
Over 237.5×1.85+0.85 u
Dec 23 · Charlotte Hornets vs Washington WizardsWin
Over 228.51.35—
Dec 23 · Cleveland Cavaliers vs New Orleans PelicansWin
1st half · Under 131.5×1.99+0.99 u
Dec 23 · Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago BullsWin
Under 264.51.37—
Dec 22 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis GrizzliesWin
Over 219.5×1.73+0.73 u
Dec 22 · Denver Nuggets vs Utah JazzWin
Over 238.51.32—
Dec 22 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis GrizzliesWin
Over 220.5×1.74+0.74 u
Dec 22 · Denver Nuggets vs Utah JazzWin
Over 239.51.32—
Dec 22 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis GrizzliesWin
Over 221.5×1.80+0.80 u
Dec 22 · Golden State Warriors vs Orlando MagicWin
Over 216.51.36—
Dec 22 · Cleveland Cavaliers vs Charlotte HornetsLoss
Under 249.5×1.85−1.00 u
Dec 22 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas MavericksWin
Under 251.51.36—
Dec 22 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis GrizzliesLoss
Over 223.5×1.85−1.00 u
Dec 22 · Denver Nuggets vs Utah JazzWin
1st quarter · Under 66.51.37—
Dec 21 · Sacramento Kings vs Houston RocketsWin
Under 234.5×1.85+0.85 u
Dec 21 · Washington Wizards vs San Antonio SpursWin
Under 248.51.36—
Dec 21 · Brooklyn Nets vs Toronto RaptorsLoss
1st quarter · Under 57.5×1.88−1.00 u
Dec 21 · Washington Wizards vs San Antonio SpursLoss
1st quarter · Over 56.51.38—
Dec 20 · Sacramento Kings vs Portland Trail BlazersWin
Under 249.5×1.74+0.74 u
Dec 20 · Toronto Raptors vs Boston CelticsWin
Under 234.51.32—
Dec 20 · Memphis Grizzlies vs Washington WizardsLoss
Over 220.5×1.80−1.00 u
Dec 20 · Detroit Pistons vs Charlotte HornetsLoss
Over 222.51.36—
Dec 20 · Utah Jazz vs Orlando MagicWin
Over 227.5×1.80+0.80 u
Dec 20 · Sacramento Kings vs Portland Trail BlazersWin
Under 248.51.32—
Dec 20 · Toronto Raptors vs Boston CelticsWin
Under 233.5×1.85+0.85 u
Dec 20 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Los Angeles LakersWin
Under 241.51.36—
Dec 20 · Memphis Grizzlies vs Washington WizardsWin
Over 221.5×1.85+0.85 u
Dec 20 · Sacramento Kings vs Portland Trail BlazersWin
Under 247.51.36—
Dec 20 · Detroit Pistons vs Charlotte HornetsLoss
Over 223.5×1.85−1.00 u
Dec 20 · Utah Jazz vs Orlando MagicWin
Over 228.51.36—
Dec 20 · Toronto Raptors vs Boston CelticsWin
Under 232.5×1.85+0.85 u
Dec 20 · Philadelphia 76ers vs Dallas MavericksWin
Under 237.51.36—
Dec 20 · Philadelphia 76ers vs Dallas MavericksWin
Over 215.5×1.85+0.85 u
Dec 20 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Los Angeles LakersWin
Under 240.51.36—
Dec 20 · Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix SunsWin
Under 237.5×1.85+0.85 u

Date	Match	Pick	Odds	Result	P&L (u)	Cumulative (u)
Dec 23	Minnesota Timberwolves vs New York Knicks	1st quarter · Over 53.5	1.36	Win	—	+70.75 u
Dec 23	Sacramento Kings vs Detroit Pistons	Under 237.5	×1.93	Loss	−1.00 u	+69.75 u
Dec 23	Los Angeles Clippers vs Houston Rockets	1st half · Over 103.5	1.42	Win	—	+69.75 u
Dec 23	San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder	Over 224.5	×1.81	Loss	−1.00 u	+68.75 u
Dec 23	Phoenix Suns vs Los Angeles Lakers	Under 237.5	1.36	Loss	—	+68.75 u
Dec 23	Portland Trail Blazers vs Orlando Magic	Under 242.5	×1.85	Loss	−1.00 u	+67.75 u
Dec 23	Utah Jazz vs Memphis Grizzlies	Under 253.5	1.36	Loss	—	+67.75 u
Dec 23	Cleveland Cavaliers vs New Orleans Pelicans	1st quarter · Over 57.5	×1.85	Loss	−1.00 u	+66.75 u
Dec 23	Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors	Under 238.5	1.36	Win	—	+66.75 u
Dec 23	Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets	Over 225.5	×1.97	Win	+0.97 u	+67.73 u
Dec 23	Charlotte Hornets vs Washington Wizards	1st half · Under 127.5	1.45	Win	—	+67.73 u
Dec 23	San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder	1st half · Under 125.5	×1.97	Win	+0.97 u	+68.70 u
Dec 23	Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls	Over 243.5	1.36	Win	—	+68.70 u
Dec 23	San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder	1st quarter · Over 55.5	×1.82	Win	+0.82 u	+69.52 u
Dec 23	Sacramento Kings vs Detroit Pistons	1st quarter · Under 63.5	1.36	Win	—	+69.52 u
Dec 23	Cleveland Cavaliers vs New Orleans Pelicans	Over 237.5	×1.85	Win	+0.85 u	+70.37 u
Dec 23	Charlotte Hornets vs Washington Wizards	Over 228.5	1.35	Win	—	+70.37 u
Dec 23	Cleveland Cavaliers vs New Orleans Pelicans	1st half · Under 131.5	×1.99	Win	+0.99 u	+71.36 u
Dec 23	Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls	Under 264.5	1.37	Win	—	+71.36 u
Dec 22	Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies	Over 219.5	×1.73	Win	+0.73 u	+72.82 u
Dec 22	Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz	Over 238.5	1.32	Win	—	+72.82 u
Dec 22	Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies	Over 220.5	×1.74	Win	+0.74 u	+73.56 u
Dec 22	Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz	Over 239.5	1.32	Win	—	+73.56 u
Dec 22	Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies	Over 221.5	×1.80	Win	+0.80 u	+74.35 u
Dec 22	Golden State Warriors vs Orlando Magic	Over 216.5	1.36	Win	—	+74.35 u
Dec 22	Cleveland Cavaliers vs Charlotte Hornets	Under 249.5	×1.85	Loss	−1.00 u	+73.35 u
Dec 22	New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks	Under 251.5	1.36	Win	—	+73.35 u
Dec 22	Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies	Over 223.5	×1.85	Loss	−1.00 u	+72.35 u
Dec 22	Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz	1st quarter · Under 66.5	1.37	Win	—	+72.35 u
Dec 21	Sacramento Kings vs Houston Rockets	Under 234.5	×1.85	Win	+0.85 u	+73.09 u
Dec 21	Washington Wizards vs San Antonio Spurs	Under 248.5	1.36	Win	—	+73.09 u
Dec 21	Brooklyn Nets vs Toronto Raptors	1st quarter · Under 57.5	×1.88	Loss	−1.00 u	+72.09 u
Dec 21	Washington Wizards vs San Antonio Spurs	1st quarter · Over 56.5	1.38	Loss	—	+72.09 u
Dec 20	Sacramento Kings vs Portland Trail Blazers	Under 249.5	×1.74	Win	+0.74 u	+68.23 u
Dec 20	Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics	Under 234.5	1.32	Win	—	+68.23 u
Dec 20	Memphis Grizzlies vs Washington Wizards	Over 220.5	×1.80	Loss	−1.00 u	+67.23 u
Dec 20	Detroit Pistons vs Charlotte Hornets	Over 222.5	1.36	Loss	—	+67.23 u
Dec 20	Utah Jazz vs Orlando Magic	Over 227.5	×1.80	Win	+0.80 u	+68.03 u
Dec 20	Sacramento Kings vs Portland Trail Blazers	Under 248.5	1.32	Win	—	+68.03 u
Dec 20	Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics	Under 233.5	×1.85	Win	+0.85 u	+68.88 u
Dec 20	Los Angeles Clippers vs Los Angeles Lakers	Under 241.5	1.36	Win	—	+68.88 u
Dec 20	Memphis Grizzlies vs Washington Wizards	Over 221.5	×1.85	Win	+0.85 u	+69.73 u
Dec 20	Sacramento Kings vs Portland Trail Blazers	Under 247.5	1.36	Win	—	+69.73 u
Dec 20	Detroit Pistons vs Charlotte Hornets	Over 223.5	×1.85	Loss	−1.00 u	+68.73 u
Dec 20	Utah Jazz vs Orlando Magic	Over 228.5	1.36	Win	—	+68.73 u
Dec 20	Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics	Under 232.5	×1.85	Win	+0.85 u	+69.58 u
Dec 20	Philadelphia 76ers vs Dallas Mavericks	Under 237.5	1.36	Win	—	+69.58 u
Dec 20	Philadelphia 76ers vs Dallas Mavericks	Over 215.5	×1.85	Win	+0.85 u	+70.43 u
Dec 20	Los Angeles Clippers vs Los Angeles Lakers	Under 240.5	1.36	Win	—	+70.43 u
Dec 20	Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns	Under 237.5	×1.85	Win	+0.85 u	+71.28 u

Page 24 of 76

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