Updated: Oct 29, 2026
Public record
Every bet, one by one, measured with the same rule as each client's record: units (1 unit = 1 stake) and parlays with the tennis policy. Odds are the ones bookmakers actually published.
How we measureThe model
Games analyzed 2,641 · Winner accuracy 67.5 %
- Games analyzed
- 2,641
- Winner accuracy
- 67.5 %
How each figure is calculated
- Games analyzed
- NBA games the model forecast, week by week, without knowing the result.
- Winner accuracy
- Did the model get which team would win? It measures the model, not the money.
The bets
Tickets 1,459 · ROI +8.4 % · P&L +122.89 u
- ROI
- +8.4 %
- P&L
- +122.89 u
- Worst drawdown
- −27.30 u
How each figure is calculated
- ROI
- Net profit divided by total amount staked, flat stake, over every recorded bet.
- P&L
- In units: 1 unit = 1 stake, so the record does not depend on how much anyone bets.
- Worst drawdown
- The deepest fall from a high. This is what has to be sat through.
Cumulative balance of the public record
- Balance
- Worst drawdown −27.30 u· Nov 14 – Dec 20
- Now +122.89 u
- Tickets
- 1,459
- Accuracy
- 65.5 %
- Odds
- 1.71
- Profit factor
- 1.24
- Variability
- 9.75
How each figure is calculated
- Accuracy
- Tickets won over tickets settled. A parlay counts as a single ticket: it wins only if every leg wins.
- Profit factor
- Winnings divided by losses. Above 1 the record makes money.
- Variability
- How much the result swings around its mean. The higher it is, the noisier and less reliable the ROI still is.
Breakdowns
By month, market and line
Result by month
- Profit
- Loss
May 202625 tickets
Apr 202619 tickets
Feb 2026195 tickets
Jan 2026257 tickets
Dec 2025129 tickets
Nov 2025113 tickets
Oct 202552 tickets
May 202541 tickets
+3.61 u
−2.57 u
−2.31 u
+52.62 u
+7.62 u
−9.82 u
+5.21 u
+6.97 u
| Month | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 25 | 88.0 % | +3.61 u | +14.4 % |
| Apr 2026 | 19 | 57.9 % | −2.57 u | -13.5 % |
| Feb 2026 | 195 | 58.5 % | −2.31 u | -1.2 % |
| Jan 2026 | 257 | 70.8 % | +52.62 u | +20.5 % |
| Dec 2025 | 129 | 62.0 % | +7.62 u | +5.9 % |
| Nov 2025 | 113 | 60.2 % | −9.82 u | -8.7 % |
| Oct 2025 | 52 | 69.2 % | +5.21 u | +10.0 % |
| May 2025 | 41 | 82.9 % | +6.97 u | +17.0 % |
| Apr 2025 | 9 | 77.8 % | +1.52 u | +16.9 % |
| Feb 2025 | 141 | 65.2 % | +17.39 u | +12.3 % |
| Jan 2025 | 175 | 70.9 % | +26.21 u | +15.0 % |
| Dec 2024 | 113 | 67.3 % | +17.85 u | +15.8 % |
| Nov 2024 | 135 | 63.7 % | +13.51 u | +10.0 % |
| Oct 2024 | 55 | 41.8 % | −14.92 u | -27.1 % |
| Total | 1459 | 65.5 % | +122.89 u | +8.4 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by market
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 65.5 %
Total points852 tickets
Handicap607 tickets
65 %
66 %
| Market | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 852 | 65.1 % | +85.25 u | +10.0 % |
| Handicap | 607 | 65.9 % | +37.64 u | +6.2 % |
| Total | 1459 | 65.5 % | +122.89 u | +8.4 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by line
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 65.5 %
Total points852 tickets
Favorite (negative handicap)347 tickets
Handicap +6.5 to +10.5105 tickets
Handicap +0.5 to +5.576 tickets
Handicap +11.5 to +15.551 tickets
Handicap +16.5 or more28 tickets
65 %
66 %
64 %
70 %
73 %
54 %
| Line | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 852 | 65.1 % | +85.25 u | +10.0 % |
| Favorite (negative handicap) | 347 | 65.7 % | +21.86 u | +6.3 % |
| Handicap +6.5 to +10.5 | 105 | 63.8 % | +6.27 u | +6.0 % |
| Handicap +0.5 to +5.5 | 76 | 69.7 % | +6.85 u | +9.0 % |
| Handicap +11.5 to +15.5 | 51 | 72.5 % | +6.73 u | +13.2 % |
| Handicap +16.5 or more | 28 | 53.6 % | −4.07 u | -14.5 % |
| Total | 1459 | 65.5 % | +122.89 u | +8.4 % |
Handicap lines are grouped by the cushion of the chosen team: “+10.5 or more” means the pick wins even if its team loses by 10 or fewer.
Record, bet by bet
2,457 rows · Page 6 of 50
- Feb 09 · Denver Nuggets vs Cleveland CavaliersWinDenver Nuggets +5.01.49—
- Feb 09 · Golden State Warriors vs Memphis GrizzliesWinUnder 228.5×1.93+0.93 u
- Feb 09 · Denver Nuggets vs Cleveland CavaliersWinOver 231.51.38—
- Feb 08 · Washington Wizards vs Miami HeatLossWashington Wizards +23.5×1.75−1.00 u
- Feb 08 · Boston Celtics vs New York KnicksLossOver 201.51.36—
- Feb 08 · Washington Wizards vs Miami HeatWinUnder 248.51.36+0.36 u
- Feb 08 · Washington Wizards vs Miami HeatLossWashington Wizards +21.51.36−1.00 u
- Feb 07 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Memphis GrizzliesWinOver 223.01.53+0.53 u
- Feb 07 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Memphis GrizzliesWinOver 223.51.52+0.52 u
- Feb 07 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Memphis GrizzliesWinOver 224.01.57+0.57 u
- Feb 07 · Chicago Bulls vs Denver NuggetsLossDenver Nuggets −5.5×2.09−1.00 u
- Feb 07 · Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State WarriorsWinLos Angeles Lakers +10.51.26—
- Feb 07 · Sacramento Kings vs Cleveland CavaliersLossUnder 240.51.38—
- Feb 07 · Chicago Bulls vs Denver NuggetsLossDenver Nuggets −4.5×2.22−1.00 u
- Feb 07 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Memphis GrizzliesWinOver 217.51.32—
- Feb 07 · Sacramento Kings vs Cleveland CavaliersLossUnder 239.51.39—
- Feb 07 · Sacramento Kings vs Cleveland CavaliersLossUnder 245.5×1.84−1.00 u
- Feb 07 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Memphis GrizzliesWinOver 218.51.35—
- Feb 07 · Sacramento Kings vs Cleveland CavaliersWinSacramento Kings +24.5×1.74+0.74 u
- Feb 07 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Memphis GrizzliesWinOver 219.51.35—
- Feb 07 · Sacramento Kings vs Cleveland CavaliersLossUnder 244.5×1.80−1.00 u
- Feb 07 · Orlando Magic vs Utah JazzWinUnder 248.51.36—
- Feb 07 · Sacramento Kings vs Cleveland CavaliersWinSacramento Kings +23.5×1.70+0.70 u
- Feb 07 · San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas MavericksWinOver 219.51.32—
- Feb 07 · Sacramento Kings vs Cleveland CavaliersLossUnder 243.5×1.89−1.00 u
- Feb 07 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Memphis GrizzliesWinOver 220.51.39—
- Feb 07 · Sacramento Kings vs Cleveland CavaliersLossUnder 242.5×1.88−1.00 u
- Feb 07 · Orlando Magic vs Utah JazzWinUnder 247.51.37—
- Feb 07 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Memphis GrizzliesLossOver 221.0×2.78−1.00 u
- Feb 07 · Atlanta Hawks vs Charlotte HornetsWinOver 221.51.36—
- Feb 07 · Sacramento Kings vs Cleveland CavaliersLossUnder 238.51.42—
- Feb 07 · Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State WarriorsWinUnder 233.5×1.85+0.85 u
- Feb 07 · San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas MavericksWinOver 220.51.36—
- Feb 07 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Memphis GrizzliesLossOver 221.5×1.93−1.00 u
- Feb 07 · Sacramento Kings vs Cleveland CavaliersLossUnder 241.51.35—
- Feb 07 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Memphis GrizzliesWinOver 222.0×2.06+1.06 u
- Feb 07 · Atlanta Hawks vs Charlotte HornetsWinOver 222.51.40—
- Feb 07 · Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State WarriorsWinUnder 232.5×2.01+1.01 u
- Feb 07 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Memphis GrizzliesWinOver 222.51.47—
- Feb 06 · Detroit Pistons vs New York KnicksWinDetroit Pistons +10.5×1.51+0.51 u
- Feb 06 · Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana PacersWinIndiana Pacers −11.51.23—
- Feb 06 · Detroit Pistons vs New York KnicksWinDetroit Pistons +9.5×1.59+0.59 u
- Feb 06 · Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana PacersWinIndiana Pacers −10.51.26—
- Feb 06 · Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana PacersWinIndiana Pacers −9.5×1.66+0.66 u
- Feb 06 · Detroit Pistons vs New York KnicksWinDetroit Pistons +5.51.27—
- Feb 06 · Detroit Pistons vs New York KnicksWinDetroit Pistons +12.5×1.37+0.37 u
- Feb 06 · Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana PacersWinIndiana Pacers −13.51.18—
- Feb 06 · Detroit Pistons vs New York KnicksWinDetroit Pistons +11.5×1.43+0.43 u
- Feb 06 · Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana PacersWinIndiana Pacers −12.51.20—
- Feb 06 · Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana PacersWinIndiana Pacers −8.51.36+0.36 u