Updated: Oct 29, 2026
Public record
Every bet, one by one, measured with the same rule as each client's record: units (1 unit = 1 stake) and parlays with the tennis policy. Odds are the ones bookmakers actually published.
How we measureThe model
Games analyzed 2,641 · Winner accuracy 67.5 %
- Games analyzed
- 2,641
- Winner accuracy
- 67.5 %
How each figure is calculated
- Games analyzed
- NBA games the model forecast, week by week, without knowing the result.
- Winner accuracy
- Did the model get which team would win? It measures the model, not the money.
The bets
Tickets 1,459 · ROI +8.4 % · P&L +122.89 u
- ROI
- +8.4 %
- P&L
- +122.89 u
- Worst drawdown
- −27.30 u
How each figure is calculated
- ROI
- Net profit divided by total amount staked, flat stake, over every recorded bet.
- P&L
- In units: 1 unit = 1 stake, so the record does not depend on how much anyone bets.
- Worst drawdown
- The deepest fall from a high. This is what has to be sat through.
Cumulative balance of the public record
- Balance
- Worst drawdown −27.30 u· Nov 14 – Dec 20
- Now +122.89 u
- Tickets
- 1,459
- Accuracy
- 65.5 %
- Odds
- 1.71
- Profit factor
- 1.24
- Variability
- 9.75
How each figure is calculated
- Accuracy
- Tickets won over tickets settled. A parlay counts as a single ticket: it wins only if every leg wins.
- Profit factor
- Winnings divided by losses. Above 1 the record makes money.
- Variability
- How much the result swings around its mean. The higher it is, the noisier and less reliable the ROI still is.
Breakdowns
By month, market and line
Result by month
- Profit
- Loss
May 202625 tickets
Apr 202619 tickets
Feb 2026195 tickets
Jan 2026257 tickets
Dec 2025129 tickets
Nov 2025113 tickets
Oct 202552 tickets
May 202541 tickets
+3.61 u
−2.57 u
−2.31 u
+52.62 u
+7.62 u
−9.82 u
+5.21 u
+6.97 u
| Month | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 25 | 88.0 % | +3.61 u | +14.4 % |
| Apr 2026 | 19 | 57.9 % | −2.57 u | -13.5 % |
| Feb 2026 | 195 | 58.5 % | −2.31 u | -1.2 % |
| Jan 2026 | 257 | 70.8 % | +52.62 u | +20.5 % |
| Dec 2025 | 129 | 62.0 % | +7.62 u | +5.9 % |
| Nov 2025 | 113 | 60.2 % | −9.82 u | -8.7 % |
| Oct 2025 | 52 | 69.2 % | +5.21 u | +10.0 % |
| May 2025 | 41 | 82.9 % | +6.97 u | +17.0 % |
| Apr 2025 | 9 | 77.8 % | +1.52 u | +16.9 % |
| Feb 2025 | 141 | 65.2 % | +17.39 u | +12.3 % |
| Jan 2025 | 175 | 70.9 % | +26.21 u | +15.0 % |
| Dec 2024 | 113 | 67.3 % | +17.85 u | +15.8 % |
| Nov 2024 | 135 | 63.7 % | +13.51 u | +10.0 % |
| Oct 2024 | 55 | 41.8 % | −14.92 u | -27.1 % |
| Total | 1459 | 65.5 % | +122.89 u | +8.4 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by market
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 65.5 %
Total points852 tickets
Handicap607 tickets
65 %
66 %
| Market | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 852 | 65.1 % | +85.25 u | +10.0 % |
| Handicap | 607 | 65.9 % | +37.64 u | +6.2 % |
| Total | 1459 | 65.5 % | +122.89 u | +8.4 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by line
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 65.5 %
Total points852 tickets
Favorite (negative handicap)347 tickets
Handicap +6.5 to +10.5105 tickets
Handicap +0.5 to +5.576 tickets
Handicap +11.5 to +15.551 tickets
Handicap +16.5 or more28 tickets
65 %
66 %
64 %
70 %
73 %
54 %
| Line | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 852 | 65.1 % | +85.25 u | +10.0 % |
| Favorite (negative handicap) | 347 | 65.7 % | +21.86 u | +6.3 % |
| Handicap +6.5 to +10.5 | 105 | 63.8 % | +6.27 u | +6.0 % |
| Handicap +0.5 to +5.5 | 76 | 69.7 % | +6.85 u | +9.0 % |
| Handicap +11.5 to +15.5 | 51 | 72.5 % | +6.73 u | +13.2 % |
| Handicap +16.5 or more | 28 | 53.6 % | −4.07 u | -14.5 % |
| Total | 1459 | 65.5 % | +122.89 u | +8.4 % |
Handicap lines are grouped by the cushion of the chosen team: “+10.5 or more” means the pick wins even if its team loses by 10 or fewer.
Record, bet by bet
2,457 rows · Page 1 of 50
- May 30 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio SpursLossOklahoma City Thunder +5.51.33−1.00 u
- May 30 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio SpursLossOklahoma City Thunder +4.51.40−1.00 u
- May 30 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio SpursLossOklahoma City Thunder +3.51.44−1.00 u
- May 28 · San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City ThunderWin1st quarter · Under 59.51.36+0.36 u
- May 28 · San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City ThunderWin1st quarter · Under 58.51.44+0.44 u
- May 25 · Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York KnicksWinNew York Knicks −7.51.28+0.28 u
- May 25 · Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York KnicksWinNew York Knicks −6.51.33+0.33 u
- May 25 · Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York KnicksWinNew York Knicks −5.51.37+0.37 u
- May 25 · Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York KnicksWinNew York Knicks −4.51.43+0.43 u
- May 22 · San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City ThunderWinOver 206.51.36+0.36 u
- May 15 · Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit PistonsWin1st half · Under 113.51.42+0.42 u
- May 15 · Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit PistonsWin1st half · Under 112.51.47+0.47 u
- May 06 · New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ersWinNew York Knicks +4.51.18+0.18 u
- May 06 · New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ersWinNew York Knicks +2.51.23+0.23 u
- May 06 · New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ersWinNew York Knicks +1.51.27+0.27 u
- May 06 · New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ersWinNew York Knicks −3.51.35+0.35 u
- May 05 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles LakersWinLos Angeles Lakers −26.51.29+0.29 u
- May 05 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles LakersWinLos Angeles Lakers −24.51.33+0.33 u
- May 04 · San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWinMinnesota Timberwolves −23.51.26+0.26 u
- May 04 · San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWinMinnesota Timberwolves −22.51.26+0.26 u
- May 02 · Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ersWinPhiladelphia 76ers −19.51.22+0.22 u
- May 02 · Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ersWinPhiladelphia 76ers −18.51.18+0.18 u
- May 02 · Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ersWinPhiladelphia 76ers −17.51.22+0.22 u
- May 02 · Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ersWinPhiladelphia 76ers −16.51.17+0.17 u
- May 02 · Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ersWinPhiladelphia 76ers −15.51.19+0.19 u
- Apr 27 · Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWinOver 211.51.32+0.32 u
- Apr 26 · Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles LakersWinHouston Rockets +7.51.20+0.20 u
- Apr 26 · Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles LakersWinHouston Rockets +5.51.29+0.29 u
- Apr 26 · Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles LakersWinHouston Rockets +5.01.37+0.37 u
- Apr 24 · Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles LakersWinLos Angeles Lakers −20.5×1.69+0.69 u
- Apr 24 · Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio SpursWinSan Antonio Spurs −5.51.41—
- Apr 24 · Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles LakersWinLos Angeles Lakers −18.51.23+0.23 u
- Apr 24 · Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles LakersWinLos Angeles Lakers −17.51.26+0.26 u
- Apr 23 · Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver NuggetsLoss1st quarter · Over 51.51.36−1.00 u
- Apr 18 · Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto RaptorsLossUnder 231.51.37−1.00 u
- Apr 18 · Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto RaptorsLossUnder 230.51.41−1.00 u
- Apr 17 · Phoenix Suns vs Golden State WarriorsLoss1st quarter · Over 48.51.32−1.00 u
- Apr 17 · Phoenix Suns vs Golden State WarriorsLoss1st quarter · Over 49.51.36−1.00 u
- Apr 17 · Phoenix Suns vs Golden State WarriorsLoss1st half · Over 102.51.42−1.00 u
- Apr 17 · Phoenix Suns vs Golden State WarriorsLoss1st quarter · Over 50.51.44−1.00 u
- Apr 15 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Golden State WarriorsWin1st quarter · Over 49.5×1.80+0.80 u
- Apr 15 · Philadelphia 76ers vs Orlando MagicWinUnder 234.51.36—
- Apr 15 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Golden State WarriorsWin1st quarter · Over 50.5×1.81+0.81 u
- Apr 15 · Philadelphia 76ers vs Orlando MagicWinPhiladelphia 76ers +7.51.33—
- Apr 15 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Golden State WarriorsWin1st half · Over 103.5×2.01+1.01 u
- Apr 15 · Philadelphia 76ers vs Orlando MagicWinPhiladelphia 76ers +6.51.37—
- Apr 15 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Golden State WarriorsLossUnder 232.5×1.96−1.00 u
- Apr 15 · Philadelphia 76ers vs Orlando MagicWinPhiladelphia 76ers +5.51.44—
- Apr 15 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Golden State WarriorsWin1st quarter · Over 51.51.45+0.45 u
- Feb 28 · Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles LakersWinUnder 240.5×1.85+0.85 u
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