Updated: Nov 3, 2026
Public record
Every bet, one by one, measured with the same rule as each client's record: units (1 unit = 1 stake) and parlays with the tennis policy. Odds are the ones bookmakers actually published.
How we measureThe model
Games analyzed 2,641 · Winner accuracy 67.5 %
- Games analyzed
- 2,641
- Winner accuracy
- 67.5 %
How each figure is calculated
- Games analyzed
- NBA games the model forecast, week by week, without knowing the result.
- Winner accuracy
- Did the model get which team would win? It measures the model, not the money.
The bets
Tickets 1,954 · ROI +6.2 % · P&L +120.17 u
- ROI
- +6.2 %
- P&L
- +120.17 u
- Worst drawdown
- −32.37 u
How each figure is calculated
- ROI
- Net profit divided by total amount staked, flat stake, over every recorded bet.
- P&L
- In units: 1 unit = 1 stake, so the record does not depend on how much anyone bets.
- Worst drawdown
- The deepest fall from a high. This is what has to be sat through.
Cumulative balance of the public record
- Balance
- Worst drawdown −32.37 u· Oct 22 – Nov 2
- Now +120.17 u
- Tickets
- 1,954
- Accuracy
- 62.4 %
- Odds
- 1.74
- Profit factor
- 1.16
- Variability
- 13.86
How each figure is calculated
- Accuracy
- Tickets won over tickets settled. A parlay counts as a single ticket: it wins only if every leg wins.
- Profit factor
- Winnings divided by losses. Above 1 the record makes money.
- Variability
- How much the result swings around its mean. The higher it is, the noisier and less reliable the ROI still is.
Breakdowns
By month, market and line
Result by month
- Profit
- Loss
Nov 20263 tickets
Oct 202642 tickets
May 202629 tickets
Apr 202629 tickets
Feb 2026245 tickets
Jan 2026321 tickets
Dec 2025187 tickets
Nov 2025138 tickets
−3.00 u
+0.57 u
+0.80 u
−5.66 u
+6.90 u
+55.78 u
+3.07 u
−12.27 u
| Month | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 3 | 0.0 % | −3.00 u | -100.0 % |
| Oct 2026 | 42 | 61.9 % | +0.57 u | +1.4 % |
| May 2026 | 29 | 79.3 % | +0.80 u | +2.8 % |
| Apr 2026 | 29 | 55.2 % | −5.66 u | -19.5 % |
| Feb 2026 | 245 | 59.2 % | +6.90 u | +2.8 % |
| Jan 2026 | 321 | 66.4 % | +55.78 u | +17.4 % |
| Dec 2025 | 187 | 57.8 % | +3.07 u | +1.6 % |
| Nov 2025 | 138 | 58.7 % | −12.27 u | -8.9 % |
| Oct 2025 | 64 | 64.1 % | +3.08 u | +4.8 % |
| May 2025 | 60 | 75.0 % | +3.40 u | +5.7 % |
| Apr 2025 | 20 | 75.0 % | +2.50 u | +12.5 % |
| Feb 2025 | 177 | 63.8 % | +22.43 u | +12.7 % |
| Jan 2025 | 230 | 70.0 % | +38.61 u | +16.8 % |
| Dec 2024 | 156 | 62.2 % | +17.19 u | +11.0 % |
| Nov 2024 | 180 | 60.0 % | +11.62 u | +6.5 % |
| Oct 2024 | 73 | 38.4 % | −24.84 u | -34.0 % |
| Total | 1954 | 62.4 % | +120.17 u | +6.2 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by market
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 62.4 %
Total points1133 tickets
Handicap821 tickets
62 %
63 %
| Market | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 1133 | 62.0 % | +70.75 u | +6.2 % |
| Handicap | 821 | 63.1 % | +49.42 u | +6.0 % |
| Total | 1954 | 62.4 % | +120.17 u | +6.2 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by line
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 62.4 %
Total points1133 tickets
Favorite (negative handicap)446 tickets
Handicap +6.5 to +10.5149 tickets
Handicap +0.5 to +5.5114 tickets
Handicap +11.5 to +15.570 tickets
Handicap +16.5 or more42 tickets
62 %
66 %
53 %
68 %
64 %
52 %
| Line | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 1133 | 62.0 % | +70.75 u | +6.2 % |
| Favorite (negative handicap) | 446 | 65.9 % | +49.42 u | +11.1 % |
| Handicap +6.5 to +10.5 | 149 | 53.0 % | −12.22 u | -8.2 % |
| Handicap +0.5 to +5.5 | 114 | 68.4 % | +14.17 u | +12.4 % |
| Handicap +11.5 to +15.5 | 70 | 64.3 % | +3.88 u | +5.5 % |
| Handicap +16.5 or more | 42 | 52.4 % | −5.84 u | -13.9 % |
| Total | 1954 | 62.4 % | +120.17 u | +6.2 % |
Handicap lines are grouped by the cushion of the chosen team: “+10.5 or more” means the pick wins even if its team loses by 10 or fewer.
Record, bet by bet
3,462 rows · Page 36 of 70
- Nov 08 · Cleveland Cavaliers vs Chicago BullsWin1st quarter · Under 63.51.38—
- Nov 08 · Washington Wizards vs Dallas MavericksWin1st quarter · Over 54.5×1.89+0.89 u
- Nov 08 · Denver Nuggets vs Indiana PacersWin1st quarter · Under 62.51.38—
- Nov 08 · Washington Wizards vs Dallas MavericksLoss1st half · Over 111.5×2.02−1.00 u
- Nov 08 · Atlanta Hawks vs Los Angeles LakersLoss1st quarter · Under 63.51.39—
- Nov 08 · Washington Wizards vs Dallas MavericksLoss1st half · Over 112.51.45−1.00 u
- Nov 07 · Denver Nuggets vs Golden State WarriorsWinUnder 241.51.50+0.50 u
- Nov 07 · Miami Heat vs Charlotte HornetsWinUnder 245.01.58+0.58 u
- Nov 07 · Miami Heat vs Charlotte HornetsWinUnder 246.01.57+0.57 u
- Nov 07 · Miami Heat vs Charlotte HornetsLossUnder 252.5×1.85−1.00 u
- Nov 07 · Atlanta Hawks vs Toronto RaptorsLossAtlanta Hawks +5.51.41—
- Nov 07 · Miami Heat vs Charlotte HornetsWinUnder 251.5×1.82+0.82 u
- Nov 07 · Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas MavericksWin1st quarter · Under 64.51.40—
- Nov 07 · Miami Heat vs Charlotte HornetsLossUnder 250.5×1.89−1.00 u
- Nov 07 · Atlanta Hawks vs Toronto RaptorsLossAtlanta Hawks +4.51.44—
- Nov 07 · Miami Heat vs Charlotte HornetsWinUnder 249.51.32+0.32 u
- Nov 07 · Miami Heat vs Charlotte HornetsWinUnder 248.51.32+0.32 u
- Nov 07 · Miami Heat vs Charlotte HornetsLoss1st quarter · Under 63.51.40−1.00 u
- Nov 07 · Miami Heat vs Charlotte HornetsLoss1st half · Under 122.51.45−1.00 u
- Nov 05 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Oklahoma City ThunderLoss1st quarter · Under 61.5×1.92−1.00 u
- Nov 05 · Boston Celtics vs Washington WizardsWin1st quarter · Over 55.51.40—
- Nov 04 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Charlotte HornetsWinUnder 246.5×1.87+0.87 u
- Nov 04 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Oklahoma City ThunderWin1st half · Over 103.51.42—
- Nov 04 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Charlotte HornetsWinUnder 245.5×1.85+0.85 u
- Nov 04 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Oklahoma City ThunderWin1st quarter · Over 50.51.36—
- Nov 04 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Charlotte HornetsWinUnder 244.51.40+0.40 u
- Nov 04 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Charlotte HornetsWinUnder 243.51.31+0.31 u
- Nov 04 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Charlotte HornetsWin1st half · Under 120.51.42+0.42 u
- Nov 04 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Charlotte HornetsLoss1st half · Under 119.51.48−1.00 u
- Nov 04 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Charlotte HornetsLoss1st quarter · Under 62.51.38−1.00 u
- Nov 04 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Charlotte HornetsWinUnder 240.51.37+0.37 u
- Nov 04 · New Orleans Pelicans vs Charlotte HornetsLoss1st half · Under 118.51.45−1.00 u
- Nov 03 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles LakersWinUnder 246.5×1.79+0.79 u
- Nov 03 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Miami HeatWin1st quarter · Over 54.51.37—
- Nov 03 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles LakersWinUnder 244.5×1.83+0.83 u
- Nov 03 · Denver Nuggets vs Sacramento KingsWin1st quarter · Over 56.51.40—
- Nov 03 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles LakersLossPortland Trail Blazers +1.51.23−1.00 u
- Nov 03 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles LakersWinUnder 243.51.31+0.31 u
- Nov 03 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles LakersWinUnder 242.51.36+0.36 u
- Nov 03 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles LakersWin1st half · Portland Trail Blazers +2.51.42+0.42 u
- Nov 03 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles LakersWinUnder 240.51.37+0.37 u
- Nov 03 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles LakersWin1st half · Portland Trail Blazers +1.51.48+0.48 u
- Nov 03 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles LakersWin1st quarter · Under 64.51.40+0.40 u
- Nov 02 · Charlotte Hornets vs Utah JazzWinUnder 248.51.32+0.32 u
- Nov 02 · Charlotte Hornets vs Utah JazzWinUnder 247.51.36+0.36 u
- Nov 02 · Charlotte Hornets vs Utah JazzWinUnder 246.51.40+0.40 u
- Nov 02 · Charlotte Hornets vs Utah JazzLossUtah Jazz −7.01.42−1.00 u
- Nov 02 · Charlotte Hornets vs Utah JazzLoss1st quarter · Under 62.51.38−1.00 u
- Nov 02 · Charlotte Hornets vs Utah JazzLossUtah Jazz −6.51.37−1.00 u
- Nov 02 · Charlotte Hornets vs Utah JazzLossUtah Jazz −5.51.45−1.00 u