Updated: Nov 2, 2026
Public record
Every bet, one by one, measured with the same rule as each client's record: units (1 unit = 1 stake) and parlays with the tennis policy. Odds are the ones bookmakers actually published.
How we measureThe model
Games analyzed 2,641 · Winner accuracy 67.5 %
- Games analyzed
- 2,641
- Winner accuracy
- 67.5 %
How each figure is calculated
- Games analyzed
- NBA games the model forecast, week by week, without knowing the result.
- Winner accuracy
- Did the model get which team would win? It measures the model, not the money.
The bets
Tickets 1,510 · ROI +7.4 % · P&L +111.15 u
- ROI
- +7.4 %
- P&L
- +111.15 u
- Worst drawdown
- −29.44 u
How each figure is calculated
- ROI
- Net profit divided by total amount staked, flat stake, over every recorded bet.
- P&L
- In units: 1 unit = 1 stake, so the record does not depend on how much anyone bets.
- Worst drawdown
- The deepest fall from a high. This is what has to be sat through.
Cumulative balance of the public record
- Balance
- Worst drawdown −29.44 u· Nov 14 – Dec 20
- Now +111.15 u
- Tickets
- 1,510
- Accuracy
- 65.0 %
- Odds
- 1.70
- Profit factor
- 1.21
- Variability
- 11.14
How each figure is calculated
- Accuracy
- Tickets won over tickets settled. A parlay counts as a single ticket: it wins only if every leg wins.
- Profit factor
- Winnings divided by losses. Above 1 the record makes money.
- Variability
- How much the result swings around its mean. The higher it is, the noisier and less reliable the ROI still is.
Breakdowns
By month, market and line
Result by month
- Profit
- Loss
Nov 20262 tickets
Oct 202630 tickets
May 202625 tickets
Apr 202619 tickets
Feb 2026195 tickets
Jan 2026257 tickets
Dec 2025138 tickets
Nov 2025113 tickets
−2.00 u
−1.75 u
+3.61 u
−2.57 u
−2.31 u
+52.62 u
+5.48 u
−9.82 u
| Month | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 2 | 0.0 % | −2.00 u | -100.0 % |
| Oct 2026 | 30 | 66.7 % | −1.75 u | -5.8 % |
| May 2026 | 25 | 88.0 % | +3.61 u | +14.4 % |
| Apr 2026 | 19 | 57.9 % | −2.57 u | -13.5 % |
| Feb 2026 | 195 | 58.5 % | −2.31 u | -1.2 % |
| Jan 2026 | 257 | 70.8 % | +52.62 u | +20.5 % |
| Dec 2025 | 138 | 60.9 % | +5.48 u | +4.0 % |
| Nov 2025 | 113 | 60.2 % | −9.82 u | -8.7 % |
| Oct 2025 | 52 | 69.2 % | +5.21 u | +10.0 % |
| May 2025 | 41 | 82.9 % | +6.97 u | +17.0 % |
| Apr 2025 | 9 | 77.8 % | +1.52 u | +16.9 % |
| Feb 2025 | 141 | 65.2 % | +17.39 u | +12.3 % |
| Jan 2025 | 175 | 70.9 % | +26.21 u | +15.0 % |
| Dec 2024 | 123 | 64.2 % | +12.00 u | +9.8 % |
| Nov 2024 | 135 | 63.7 % | +13.51 u | +10.0 % |
| Oct 2024 | 55 | 41.8 % | −14.92 u | -27.1 % |
| Total | 1510 | 65.0 % | +111.15 u | +7.4 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by market
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 65.0 %
Total points887 tickets
Handicap623 tickets
65 %
65 %
| Market | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 887 | 64.7 % | +78.02 u | +8.8 % |
| Handicap | 623 | 65.5 % | +33.14 u | +5.3 % |
| Total | 1510 | 65.0 % | +111.15 u | +7.4 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by line
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 65.0 %
Total points887 tickets
Favorite (negative handicap)350 tickets
Handicap +6.5 to +10.5109 tickets
Handicap +0.5 to +5.580 tickets
Handicap +11.5 to +15.556 tickets
Handicap +16.5 or more28 tickets
65 %
65 %
63 %
71 %
68 %
54 %
| Line | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 887 | 64.7 % | +78.02 u | +8.8 % |
| Favorite (negative handicap) | 350 | 65.4 % | +20.56 u | +5.9 % |
| Handicap +6.5 to +10.5 | 109 | 63.3 % | +4.89 u | +4.5 % |
| Handicap +0.5 to +5.5 | 80 | 71.3 % | +8.83 u | +11.0 % |
| Handicap +11.5 to +15.5 | 56 | 67.9 % | +2.92 u | +5.2 % |
| Handicap +16.5 or more | 28 | 53.6 % | −4.07 u | -14.5 % |
| Total | 1510 | 65.0 % | +111.15 u | +7.4 % |
Handicap lines are grouped by the cushion of the chosen team: “+10.5 or more” means the pick wins even if its team loses by 10 or fewer.
Record, bet by bet
2,523 rows · Page 33 of 51
- Feb 12 · Washington Wizards vs Indiana PacersWin1st quarter · Under 64.51.41—
- Feb 12 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Memphis GrizzliesLoss1st quarter · Under 62.5×1.97−1.00 u
- Feb 12 · Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland CavaliersWin1st half · Over 108.51.41—
- Feb 12 · Boston Celtics vs San Antonio SpursWin1st quarter · Under 61.5×2.02+1.02 u
- Feb 12 · Washington Wizards vs Indiana PacersWin1st half · Under 125.51.45—
- Feb 11 · Indiana Pacers vs New York KnicksWin1st half · Over 116.51.41+0.41 u
- Feb 10 · Miami Heat vs Boston CelticsLossUnder 228.5×1.82−1.00 u
- Feb 10 · Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail BlazersLoss1st quarter · Under 61.51.40—
- Feb 10 · Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail BlazersLoss1st half · Under 119.5×1.99−1.00 u
- Feb 10 · Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento KingsWin1st quarter · Over 56.51.38—
- Feb 10 · Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento KingsWin1st half · Over 115.5×1.93+0.93 u
- Feb 10 · Miami Heat vs Boston CelticsWin1st quarter · Under 60.51.37—
- Feb 10 · Milwaukee Bucks vs Golden State WarriorsWin1st quarter · Under 61.5×1.92+0.92 u
- Feb 10 · Miami Heat vs Boston CelticsWin1st half · Under 117.51.40—
- Feb 10 · Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail BlazersLoss1st half · Under 118.5×2.07−1.00 u
- Feb 10 · Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento KingsWin1st half · Over 116.51.44—
- Feb 09 · Detroit Pistons vs Charlotte HornetsLossUnder 235.5×1.77−1.00 u
- Feb 09 · Milwaukee Bucks vs Philadelphia 76ersLossPhiladelphia 76ers −4.51.36—
- Feb 09 · Detroit Pistons vs Charlotte HornetsWin1st quarter · Under 62.5×1.99+0.99 u
- Feb 09 · Houston Rockets vs Toronto RaptorsWin1st half · Under 114.51.44—
- Feb 08 · Los Angeles Lakers vs Indiana PacersWin1st half · Over 110.51.50+0.50 u
- Feb 08 · Washington Wizards vs Atlanta HawksWinUnder 249.51.52+0.52 u
- Feb 08 · Los Angeles Lakers vs Indiana PacersWinIndiana Pacers −7.5×1.87+0.87 u
- Feb 08 · Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City ThunderWin1st half · Over 114.51.42—
- Feb 08 · Los Angeles Lakers vs Indiana PacersLossIndiana Pacers −6.5×1.55−1.00 u
- Feb 08 · Phoenix Suns vs Denver NuggetsWinUnder 248.51.30—
- Feb 08 · Chicago Bulls vs Golden State WarriorsWinOver 225.5×1.89+0.89 u
- Feb 08 · Los Angeles Lakers vs Indiana PacersWin1st half · Over 109.51.44—
- Feb 08 · Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City ThunderLoss1st half · Over 115.5×1.99−1.00 u
- Feb 08 · Orlando Magic vs San Antonio SpursLoss1st quarter · Under 58.51.37—
- Feb 08 · Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City ThunderWin1st quarter · Over 56.5×2.02+1.02 u
- Feb 08 · Los Angeles Lakers vs Indiana PacersWin1st quarter · Over 53.51.44—
- Feb 08 · Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City ThunderLoss1st half · Over 116.5×2.02−1.00 u
- Feb 08 · Washington Wizards vs Atlanta HawksLoss1st quarter · Over 56.51.40—
- Feb 08 · Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City ThunderWin1st half · Over 117.5×2.12+1.12 u
- Feb 08 · Orlando Magic vs San Antonio SpursWinOrlando Magic +4.51.42—
- Feb 07 · Atlanta Hawks vs Milwaukee BucksWinUnder 253.5×1.85+0.85 u
- Feb 07 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Toronto RaptorsWin1st half · Under 118.51.40—
- Feb 07 · Atlanta Hawks vs Milwaukee BucksWinUnder 252.51.32+0.32 u
- Feb 07 · Atlanta Hawks vs Milwaukee BucksWin1st quarter · Under 66.51.41+0.41 u
- Feb 07 · Atlanta Hawks vs Milwaukee BucksWin1st half · Under 129.51.44+0.44 u
- Feb 06 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Indiana PacersWin1st half · Over 107.5×1.96+0.96 u
- Feb 06 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento KingsWinSacramento Kings −7.51.36—
- Feb 06 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Indiana PacersWin1st quarter · Over 51.5×2.82+1.82 u
- Feb 06 · Denver Nuggets vs Orlando MagicWin1st half · Under 120.51.45—
- Feb 06 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento KingsWinSacramento Kings −6.51.41—
- Feb 06 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Indiana PacersWin1st half · Over 108.5×2.03+1.03 u
- Feb 06 · Boston Celtics vs Dallas MavericksWin1st half · Over 112.51.44—
- Feb 06 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Indiana PacersWin1st quarter · Over 52.5×1.99+0.99 u
- Feb 06 · Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State WarriorsWin1st half · Over 102.51.41—