Updated: Nov 2, 2026
Public record
Every bet, one by one, measured with the same rule as each client's record: units (1 unit = 1 stake) and parlays with the tennis policy. Odds are the ones bookmakers actually published.
How we measureThe model
Games analyzed 2,641 · Winner accuracy 67.5 %
- Games analyzed
- 2,641
- Winner accuracy
- 67.5 %
How each figure is calculated
- Games analyzed
- NBA games the model forecast, week by week, without knowing the result.
- Winner accuracy
- Did the model get which team would win? It measures the model, not the money.
The bets
Tickets 1,510 · ROI +7.4 % · P&L +111.15 u
- ROI
- +7.4 %
- P&L
- +111.15 u
- Worst drawdown
- −29.44 u
How each figure is calculated
- ROI
- Net profit divided by total amount staked, flat stake, over every recorded bet.
- P&L
- In units: 1 unit = 1 stake, so the record does not depend on how much anyone bets.
- Worst drawdown
- The deepest fall from a high. This is what has to be sat through.
Cumulative balance of the public record
- Balance
- Worst drawdown −29.44 u· Nov 14 – Dec 20
- Now +111.15 u
- Tickets
- 1,510
- Accuracy
- 65.0 %
- Odds
- 1.70
- Profit factor
- 1.21
- Variability
- 11.14
How each figure is calculated
- Accuracy
- Tickets won over tickets settled. A parlay counts as a single ticket: it wins only if every leg wins.
- Profit factor
- Winnings divided by losses. Above 1 the record makes money.
- Variability
- How much the result swings around its mean. The higher it is, the noisier and less reliable the ROI still is.
Breakdowns
By month, market and line
Result by month
- Profit
- Loss
Nov 20262 tickets
Oct 202630 tickets
May 202625 tickets
Apr 202619 tickets
Feb 2026195 tickets
Jan 2026257 tickets
Dec 2025138 tickets
Nov 2025113 tickets
−2.00 u
−1.75 u
+3.61 u
−2.57 u
−2.31 u
+52.62 u
+5.48 u
−9.82 u
| Month | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 2 | 0.0 % | −2.00 u | -100.0 % |
| Oct 2026 | 30 | 66.7 % | −1.75 u | -5.8 % |
| May 2026 | 25 | 88.0 % | +3.61 u | +14.4 % |
| Apr 2026 | 19 | 57.9 % | −2.57 u | -13.5 % |
| Feb 2026 | 195 | 58.5 % | −2.31 u | -1.2 % |
| Jan 2026 | 257 | 70.8 % | +52.62 u | +20.5 % |
| Dec 2025 | 138 | 60.9 % | +5.48 u | +4.0 % |
| Nov 2025 | 113 | 60.2 % | −9.82 u | -8.7 % |
| Oct 2025 | 52 | 69.2 % | +5.21 u | +10.0 % |
| May 2025 | 41 | 82.9 % | +6.97 u | +17.0 % |
| Apr 2025 | 9 | 77.8 % | +1.52 u | +16.9 % |
| Feb 2025 | 141 | 65.2 % | +17.39 u | +12.3 % |
| Jan 2025 | 175 | 70.9 % | +26.21 u | +15.0 % |
| Dec 2024 | 123 | 64.2 % | +12.00 u | +9.8 % |
| Nov 2024 | 135 | 63.7 % | +13.51 u | +10.0 % |
| Oct 2024 | 55 | 41.8 % | −14.92 u | -27.1 % |
| Total | 1510 | 65.0 % | +111.15 u | +7.4 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by market
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 65.0 %
Total points887 tickets
Handicap623 tickets
65 %
65 %
| Market | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 887 | 64.7 % | +78.02 u | +8.8 % |
| Handicap | 623 | 65.5 % | +33.14 u | +5.3 % |
| Total | 1510 | 65.0 % | +111.15 u | +7.4 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by line
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 65.0 %
Total points887 tickets
Favorite (negative handicap)350 tickets
Handicap +6.5 to +10.5109 tickets
Handicap +0.5 to +5.580 tickets
Handicap +11.5 to +15.556 tickets
Handicap +16.5 or more28 tickets
65 %
65 %
63 %
71 %
68 %
54 %
| Line | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 887 | 64.7 % | +78.02 u | +8.8 % |
| Favorite (negative handicap) | 350 | 65.4 % | +20.56 u | +5.9 % |
| Handicap +6.5 to +10.5 | 109 | 63.3 % | +4.89 u | +4.5 % |
| Handicap +0.5 to +5.5 | 80 | 71.3 % | +8.83 u | +11.0 % |
| Handicap +11.5 to +15.5 | 56 | 67.9 % | +2.92 u | +5.2 % |
| Handicap +16.5 or more | 28 | 53.6 % | −4.07 u | -14.5 % |
| Total | 1510 | 65.0 % | +111.15 u | +7.4 % |
Handicap lines are grouped by the cushion of the chosen team: “+10.5 or more” means the pick wins even if its team loses by 10 or fewer.
Record, bet by bet
2,523 rows · Page 29 of 51
- May 24 · Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City ThunderWin1st half · Under 115.51.44+0.44 u
- May 24 · Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City ThunderWin1st half · Under 114.51.41+0.41 u
- May 24 · Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City ThunderWin1st half · Under 113.51.44+0.44 u
- May 22 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWin1st quarter · Under 59.51.38+0.38 u
- May 22 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWin1st half · Under 115.51.41+0.41 u
- May 22 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWin1st half · Under 114.51.41+0.41 u
- May 22 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWin1st quarter · Under 58.51.41+0.41 u
- May 22 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWin1st half · Under 113.51.48+0.48 u
- May 21 · New York Knicks vs Indiana PacersLoss1st half · Under 114.51.41−1.00 u
- May 20 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota TimberwolvesLoss1st half · Over 101.51.41−1.00 u
- May 20 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota TimberwolvesLoss1st half · Over 102.51.41−1.00 u
- May 20 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota TimberwolvesLoss1st quarter · Over 49.51.36−1.00 u
- May 20 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota TimberwolvesLoss1st half · Over 103.51.44−1.00 u
- May 14 · Boston Celtics vs New York KnicksWin1st half · Boston Celtics +3.51.36+0.36 u
- May 14 · Boston Celtics vs New York KnicksWin1st half · Boston Celtics +2.51.41+0.41 u
- May 14 · Boston Celtics vs New York KnicksWin1st half · Over 99.51.41+0.41 u
- May 14 · Boston Celtics vs New York KnicksWin1st half · Over 100.51.48+0.48 u
- May 12 · Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWin1st half · Over 92.51.40+0.40 u
- May 12 · Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWin1st quarter · Over 44.51.36+0.36 u
- May 12 · Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWin1st half · Over 93.51.40+0.40 u
- May 12 · Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWin1st quarter · Over 45.51.38+0.38 u
- May 12 · Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWin1st half · Over 94.51.40+0.40 u
- May 09 · Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland CavaliersWinOver 214.5×1.82+0.82 u
- May 09 · Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City ThunderWin1st half · Under 121.51.41—
- May 09 · Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland CavaliersWinOver 215.5×1.82+0.82 u
- May 09 · Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City ThunderWin1st quarter · Under 62.51.41—
- May 09 · Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland CavaliersWinOver 216.51.29+0.29 u
- May 09 · Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland CavaliersWinOver 217.51.29+0.29 u
- May 09 · Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland CavaliersWin1st quarter · Over 51.51.36+0.36 u
- May 09 · Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland CavaliersWin1st half · Over 106.51.41+0.41 u
- May 05 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver NuggetsWinOver 213.51.29+0.29 u
- May 05 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver NuggetsWin1st quarter · Over 52.51.36+0.36 u
- May 05 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver NuggetsWin1st half · Over 109.51.41+0.41 u
- May 03 · Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles ClippersWinDenver Nuggets +10.51.24+0.24 u
- May 03 · Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles ClippersWin1st quarter · Over 45.51.37+0.37 u
- May 03 · Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles ClippersWinDenver Nuggets +7.51.36+0.36 u
- May 03 · Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles ClippersWin1st half · Over 93.51.40+0.40 u
- May 02 · Golden State Warriors vs Houston RocketsWin1st quarter · Over 45.51.37+0.37 u
- May 02 · Golden State Warriors vs Houston RocketsWin1st half · Over 94.51.41+0.41 u
- Apr 29 · Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee BucksWin1st half · Under 117.51.52+0.52 u
- Apr 29 · Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee BucksLoss1st half · Under 119.5×1.92−1.00 u
- Apr 29 · New York Knicks vs Detroit PistonsLoss1st quarter · Over 49.51.36—
- Apr 29 · Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee BucksWin1st half · Under 118.51.45+0.45 u
- Apr 29 · Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee BucksWin1st quarter · Under 61.51.40+0.40 u
- Apr 29 · Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee BucksWin1st half · Under 116.51.44+0.44 u
- Apr 26 · Miami Heat vs Cleveland CavaliersWin1st half · Under 110.51.41+0.41 u
- Apr 20 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis GrizzliesWin1st quarter · Over 51.51.38+0.38 u
- Apr 20 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis GrizzliesLoss1st half · Over 106.51.41−1.00 u
- Apr 15 · Golden State Warriors vs Memphis GrizzliesWin1st quarter · Under 60.5×1.92+0.92 u
- Apr 15 · Orlando Magic vs Atlanta HawksWin1st half · Over 105.51.40—