Updated: Nov 2, 2026
Public record
Every bet, one by one, measured with the same rule as each client's record: units (1 unit = 1 stake) and parlays with the tennis policy. Odds are the ones bookmakers actually published.
How we measureThe model
Games analyzed 2,641 · Winner accuracy 67.5 %
- Games analyzed
- 2,641
- Winner accuracy
- 67.5 %
How each figure is calculated
- Games analyzed
- NBA games the model forecast, week by week, without knowing the result.
- Winner accuracy
- Did the model get which team would win? It measures the model, not the money.
The bets
Tickets 1,510 · ROI +7.4 % · P&L +111.15 u
- ROI
- +7.4 %
- P&L
- +111.15 u
- Worst drawdown
- −29.44 u
How each figure is calculated
- ROI
- Net profit divided by total amount staked, flat stake, over every recorded bet.
- P&L
- In units: 1 unit = 1 stake, so the record does not depend on how much anyone bets.
- Worst drawdown
- The deepest fall from a high. This is what has to be sat through.
Cumulative balance of the public record
- Balance
- Worst drawdown −29.44 u· Nov 14 – Dec 20
- Now +111.15 u
- Tickets
- 1,510
- Accuracy
- 65.0 %
- Odds
- 1.70
- Profit factor
- 1.21
- Variability
- 11.14
How each figure is calculated
- Accuracy
- Tickets won over tickets settled. A parlay counts as a single ticket: it wins only if every leg wins.
- Profit factor
- Winnings divided by losses. Above 1 the record makes money.
- Variability
- How much the result swings around its mean. The higher it is, the noisier and less reliable the ROI still is.
Breakdowns
By month, market and line
Result by month
- Profit
- Loss
Nov 20262 tickets
Oct 202630 tickets
May 202625 tickets
Apr 202619 tickets
Feb 2026195 tickets
Jan 2026257 tickets
Dec 2025138 tickets
Nov 2025113 tickets
−2.00 u
−1.75 u
+3.61 u
−2.57 u
−2.31 u
+52.62 u
+5.48 u
−9.82 u
| Month | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 2 | 0.0 % | −2.00 u | -100.0 % |
| Oct 2026 | 30 | 66.7 % | −1.75 u | -5.8 % |
| May 2026 | 25 | 88.0 % | +3.61 u | +14.4 % |
| Apr 2026 | 19 | 57.9 % | −2.57 u | -13.5 % |
| Feb 2026 | 195 | 58.5 % | −2.31 u | -1.2 % |
| Jan 2026 | 257 | 70.8 % | +52.62 u | +20.5 % |
| Dec 2025 | 138 | 60.9 % | +5.48 u | +4.0 % |
| Nov 2025 | 113 | 60.2 % | −9.82 u | -8.7 % |
| Oct 2025 | 52 | 69.2 % | +5.21 u | +10.0 % |
| May 2025 | 41 | 82.9 % | +6.97 u | +17.0 % |
| Apr 2025 | 9 | 77.8 % | +1.52 u | +16.9 % |
| Feb 2025 | 141 | 65.2 % | +17.39 u | +12.3 % |
| Jan 2025 | 175 | 70.9 % | +26.21 u | +15.0 % |
| Dec 2024 | 123 | 64.2 % | +12.00 u | +9.8 % |
| Nov 2024 | 135 | 63.7 % | +13.51 u | +10.0 % |
| Oct 2024 | 55 | 41.8 % | −14.92 u | -27.1 % |
| Total | 1510 | 65.0 % | +111.15 u | +7.4 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by market
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 65.0 %
Total points887 tickets
Handicap623 tickets
65 %
65 %
| Market | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 887 | 64.7 % | +78.02 u | +8.8 % |
| Handicap | 623 | 65.5 % | +33.14 u | +5.3 % |
| Total | 1510 | 65.0 % | +111.15 u | +7.4 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by line
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 65.0 %
Total points887 tickets
Favorite (negative handicap)350 tickets
Handicap +6.5 to +10.5109 tickets
Handicap +0.5 to +5.580 tickets
Handicap +11.5 to +15.556 tickets
Handicap +16.5 or more28 tickets
65 %
65 %
63 %
71 %
68 %
54 %
| Line | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 887 | 64.7 % | +78.02 u | +8.8 % |
| Favorite (negative handicap) | 350 | 65.4 % | +20.56 u | +5.9 % |
| Handicap +6.5 to +10.5 | 109 | 63.3 % | +4.89 u | +4.5 % |
| Handicap +0.5 to +5.5 | 80 | 71.3 % | +8.83 u | +11.0 % |
| Handicap +11.5 to +15.5 | 56 | 67.9 % | +2.92 u | +5.2 % |
| Handicap +16.5 or more | 28 | 53.6 % | −4.07 u | -14.5 % |
| Total | 1510 | 65.0 % | +111.15 u | +7.4 % |
Handicap lines are grouped by the cushion of the chosen team: “+10.5 or more” means the pick wins even if its team loses by 10 or fewer.
Record, bet by bet
2,523 rows · Page 19 of 51
- Jan 02 · Washington Wizards vs Brooklyn NetsWinWashington Wizards +5.51.37—
- Jan 02 · Golden State Warriors vs Oklahoma City ThunderWinOklahoma City Thunder +6.5×1.94+0.94 u
- Jan 02 · Washington Wizards vs Brooklyn NetsWinWashington Wizards +4.51.43—
- Jan 01 · Brooklyn Nets vs Houston RocketsLossBrooklyn Nets +23.5×1.75−1.00 u
- Jan 01 · Dallas Mavericks vs Philadelphia 76ersWinOver 219.51.36—
- Jan 01 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Utah JazzWinUnder 242.5×1.85+0.85 u
- Jan 01 · Brooklyn Nets vs Houston RocketsWinUnder 227.51.36—
- Dec 31 · Chicago Bulls vs New Orleans PelicansLoss1st quarter · Over 56.5×1.75−1.00 u
- Dec 31 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trail BlazersLossPortland Trail Blazers −26.51.29—
- Dec 31 · Atlanta Hawks vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWinUnder 255.5×1.80+0.80 u
- Dec 31 · Indiana Pacers vs Orlando MagicWinOver 215.51.32—
- Dec 31 · Chicago Bulls vs New Orleans PelicansWin1st quarter · Over 57.5×1.90+0.90 u
- Dec 31 · Atlanta Hawks vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWinUnder 254.51.40—
- Dec 31 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trail BlazersLossPortland Trail Blazers −25.5×1.80−1.00 u
- Dec 31 · Indiana Pacers vs Orlando MagicWinOver 216.51.36—
- Dec 31 · Chicago Bulls vs New Orleans PelicansWinOver 236.5×1.86+0.86 u
- Dec 31 · Atlanta Hawks vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWinUnder 253.51.37—
- Dec 31 · Atlanta Hawks vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWin1st quarter · Under 64.5×1.85+0.85 u
- Dec 31 · Cleveland Cavaliers vs Phoenix SunsWinUnder 245.51.36—
- Dec 31 · Indiana Pacers vs Orlando MagicWinOver 217.5×1.85+0.85 u
- Dec 31 · Chicago Bulls vs New Orleans PelicansWinOver 237.51.36—
- Dec 31 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trail BlazersLossPortland Trail Blazers −24.5×1.90−1.00 u
- Dec 31 · Atlanta Hawks vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWinUnder 252.51.40—
- Dec 31 · Atlanta Hawks vs Minnesota TimberwolvesLossUnder 251.5×1.95−1.00 u
- Dec 31 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trail BlazersLossPortland Trail Blazers −23.51.41—
- Dec 31 · Chicago Bulls vs New Orleans PelicansLossChicago Bulls +5.5×2.07−1.00 u
- Dec 31 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trail BlazersLossPortland Trail Blazers −22.51.45—
- Dec 30 · Memphis Grizzlies vs Philadelphia 76ersWinPhiladelphia 76ers −8.5×1.77+0.77 u
- Dec 30 · Utah Jazz vs Boston CelticsWin1st quarter · Over 57.51.36—
- Dec 30 · Memphis Grizzlies vs Philadelphia 76ersWinPhiladelphia 76ers −7.51.35+0.35 u
- Dec 30 · Memphis Grizzlies vs Philadelphia 76ersWinPhiladelphia 76ers −6.51.41+0.41 u
- Dec 30 · Memphis Grizzlies vs Philadelphia 76ersWinPhiladelphia 76ers −5.51.43+0.43 u
- Dec 29 · Brooklyn Nets vs Golden State WarriorsWinOver 217.01.57+0.57 u
- Dec 29 · Houston Rockets vs Indiana PacersWinIndiana Pacers −25.5×1.55+0.55 u
- Dec 29 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Dallas MavericksWinPortland Trail Blazers +9.51.23—
- Dec 29 · Houston Rockets vs Indiana PacersWinIndiana Pacers −24.5×1.66+0.66 u
- Dec 29 · Toronto Raptors vs Orlando MagicWinOrlando Magic −9.51.29—
- Dec 29 · Brooklyn Nets vs Golden State WarriorsWinOver 211.5×2.47+1.47 u
- Dec 29 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Atlanta HawksWinAtlanta Hawks −27.51.29—
- Dec 29 · Houston Rockets vs Indiana PacersWinIndiana Pacers −19.51.41—
- Dec 29 · Toronto Raptors vs Orlando MagicWinOrlando Magic −8.5×1.81+0.81 u
- Dec 29 · Brooklyn Nets vs Golden State WarriorsWinOver 212.51.37—
- Dec 29 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Atlanta HawksLossUnder 246.5×1.80−1.00 u
- Dec 29 · Houston Rockets vs Indiana PacersWinOver 209.51.32—
- Dec 29 · Toronto Raptors vs Orlando MagicLossOrlando Magic −7.5×1.86−1.00 u
- Dec 29 · Portland Trail Blazers vs Dallas MavericksLoss1st quarter · Under 65.51.36—
- Dec 29 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Atlanta HawksLossUnder 245.5×1.88−1.00 u
- Dec 29 · Chicago Bulls vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWinOver 231.51.36—
- Dec 29 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Atlanta HawksLossUnder 244.5×2.03−1.00 u
- Dec 29 · Toronto Raptors vs Orlando MagicWinOrlando Magic −6.51.44—