Updated: Nov 2, 2026
Public record
Every bet, one by one, measured with the same rule as each client's record: units (1 unit = 1 stake) and parlays with the tennis policy. Odds are the ones bookmakers actually published.
How we measureThe model
Games analyzed 2,641 · Winner accuracy 67.5 %
- Games analyzed
- 2,641
- Winner accuracy
- 67.5 %
How each figure is calculated
- Games analyzed
- NBA games the model forecast, week by week, without knowing the result.
- Winner accuracy
- Did the model get which team would win? It measures the model, not the money.
The bets
Tickets 1,510 · ROI +7.4 % · P&L +111.15 u
- ROI
- +7.4 %
- P&L
- +111.15 u
- Worst drawdown
- −29.44 u
How each figure is calculated
- ROI
- Net profit divided by total amount staked, flat stake, over every recorded bet.
- P&L
- In units: 1 unit = 1 stake, so the record does not depend on how much anyone bets.
- Worst drawdown
- The deepest fall from a high. This is what has to be sat through.
Cumulative balance of the public record
- Balance
- Worst drawdown −29.44 u· Nov 14 – Dec 20
- Now +111.15 u
- Tickets
- 1,510
- Accuracy
- 65.0 %
- Odds
- 1.70
- Profit factor
- 1.21
- Variability
- 11.14
How each figure is calculated
- Accuracy
- Tickets won over tickets settled. A parlay counts as a single ticket: it wins only if every leg wins.
- Profit factor
- Winnings divided by losses. Above 1 the record makes money.
- Variability
- How much the result swings around its mean. The higher it is, the noisier and less reliable the ROI still is.
Breakdowns
By month, market and line
Result by month
- Profit
- Loss
Nov 20262 tickets
Oct 202630 tickets
May 202625 tickets
Apr 202619 tickets
Feb 2026195 tickets
Jan 2026257 tickets
Dec 2025138 tickets
Nov 2025113 tickets
−2.00 u
−1.75 u
+3.61 u
−2.57 u
−2.31 u
+52.62 u
+5.48 u
−9.82 u
| Month | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 2 | 0.0 % | −2.00 u | -100.0 % |
| Oct 2026 | 30 | 66.7 % | −1.75 u | -5.8 % |
| May 2026 | 25 | 88.0 % | +3.61 u | +14.4 % |
| Apr 2026 | 19 | 57.9 % | −2.57 u | -13.5 % |
| Feb 2026 | 195 | 58.5 % | −2.31 u | -1.2 % |
| Jan 2026 | 257 | 70.8 % | +52.62 u | +20.5 % |
| Dec 2025 | 138 | 60.9 % | +5.48 u | +4.0 % |
| Nov 2025 | 113 | 60.2 % | −9.82 u | -8.7 % |
| Oct 2025 | 52 | 69.2 % | +5.21 u | +10.0 % |
| May 2025 | 41 | 82.9 % | +6.97 u | +17.0 % |
| Apr 2025 | 9 | 77.8 % | +1.52 u | +16.9 % |
| Feb 2025 | 141 | 65.2 % | +17.39 u | +12.3 % |
| Jan 2025 | 175 | 70.9 % | +26.21 u | +15.0 % |
| Dec 2024 | 123 | 64.2 % | +12.00 u | +9.8 % |
| Nov 2024 | 135 | 63.7 % | +13.51 u | +10.0 % |
| Oct 2024 | 55 | 41.8 % | −14.92 u | -27.1 % |
| Total | 1510 | 65.0 % | +111.15 u | +7.4 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by market
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 65.0 %
Total points887 tickets
Handicap623 tickets
65 %
65 %
| Market | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 887 | 64.7 % | +78.02 u | +8.8 % |
| Handicap | 623 | 65.5 % | +33.14 u | +5.3 % |
| Total | 1510 | 65.0 % | +111.15 u | +7.4 % |
Every ticket counts in one row only, so each table adds up to the summary. «Mixed parlay» is a parlay whose legs differ; «No data», older tickets that did not store it.
Hit rate by line
- Hit rate
- Overall hit rate 65.0 %
Total points887 tickets
Favorite (negative handicap)350 tickets
Handicap +6.5 to +10.5109 tickets
Handicap +0.5 to +5.580 tickets
Handicap +11.5 to +15.556 tickets
Handicap +16.5 or more28 tickets
65 %
65 %
63 %
71 %
68 %
54 %
| Line | Tickets | Accuracy | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points | 887 | 64.7 % | +78.02 u | +8.8 % |
| Favorite (negative handicap) | 350 | 65.4 % | +20.56 u | +5.9 % |
| Handicap +6.5 to +10.5 | 109 | 63.3 % | +4.89 u | +4.5 % |
| Handicap +0.5 to +5.5 | 80 | 71.3 % | +8.83 u | +11.0 % |
| Handicap +11.5 to +15.5 | 56 | 67.9 % | +2.92 u | +5.2 % |
| Handicap +16.5 or more | 28 | 53.6 % | −4.07 u | -14.5 % |
| Total | 1510 | 65.0 % | +111.15 u | +7.4 % |
Handicap lines are grouped by the cushion of the chosen team: “+10.5 or more” means the pick wins even if its team loses by 10 or fewer.
Record, bet by bet
2,523 rows · Page 17 of 51
- Jan 07 · Atlanta Hawks vs New Orleans PelicansWinUnder 258.51.36—
- Jan 07 · Boston Celtics vs Denver NuggetsWinUnder 242.5×1.85+0.85 u
- Jan 07 · Charlotte Hornets vs Toronto RaptorsWinUnder 241.51.36—
- Jan 07 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah JazzLossOver 230.5×1.85−1.00 u
- Jan 07 · Detroit Pistons vs Chicago BullsWinUnder 239.51.36—
- Jan 07 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah JazzWinUtah Jazz −27.5×1.88+0.88 u
- Jan 07 · Philadelphia 76ers vs Washington WizardsWinWashington Wizards −24.51.37—
- Jan 07 · Detroit Pistons vs Chicago BullsWinUnder 238.5×1.96+0.96 u
- Jan 07 · Brooklyn Nets vs Orlando MagicWinOrlando Magic −5.51.41—
- Jan 07 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah JazzWinUtah Jazz −26.5×2.07+1.07 u
- Jan 07 · Brooklyn Nets vs Orlando MagicWinOrlando Magic −4.51.47—
- Jan 06 · Memphis Grizzlies vs San Antonio SpursWinUnder 250.5×1.81+0.81 u
- Jan 06 · Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami HeatWinMinnesota Timberwolves +3.51.33—
- Jan 05 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Golden State WarriorsLossGolden State Warriors −9.5×1.70−1.00 u
- Jan 05 · Detroit Pistons vs New York KnicksLossNew York Knicks −9.51.32—
- Jan 05 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Golden State WarriorsLossGolden State Warriors −8.5×1.81−1.00 u
- Jan 05 · Detroit Pistons vs New York KnicksLossNew York Knicks −8.51.37—
- Jan 05 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Golden State WarriorsLossGolden State Warriors −7.5×1.88−1.00 u
- Jan 05 · Toronto Raptors vs Atlanta HawksLossOver 223.51.36—
- Jan 05 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Golden State WarriorsLossUnder 236.5×1.85−1.00 u
- Jan 05 · Detroit Pistons vs New York KnicksLossOver 221.51.36—
- Jan 05 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Golden State WarriorsWinGolden State Warriors −6.5×1.97+0.97 u
- Jan 05 · Oklahoma City Thunder vs Charlotte HornetsWinCharlotte Hornets −23.51.37—
- Jan 05 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Golden State WarriorsLossUnder 235.5×1.86−1.00 u
- Jan 05 · Detroit Pistons vs New York KnicksLossNew York Knicks −5.51.41—
- Jan 05 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Golden State WarriorsWinGolden State Warriors −5.51.49+0.49 u
- Jan 05 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Golden State WarriorsWinUnder 234.51.36+0.36 u
- Jan 05 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Golden State WarriorsWinGolden State Warriors −4.51.44+0.44 u
- Jan 04 · Miami Heat vs New Orleans PelicansWin1st quarter · Over 56.5×1.85+0.85 u
- Jan 04 · Washington Wizards vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWinOver 225.51.36—
- Jan 04 · Miami Heat vs New Orleans PelicansLossOver 233.5×1.74−1.00 u
- Jan 04 · Washington Wizards vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWinOver 226.51.32—
- Jan 04 · Miami Heat vs New Orleans PelicansWin1st quarter · Over 57.5×1.85+0.85 u
- Jan 04 · Sacramento Kings vs Milwaukee BucksWinUnder 240.51.36—
- Jan 04 · Miami Heat vs New Orleans PelicansWin1st half · Over 117.5×1.93+0.93 u
- Jan 04 · Los Angeles Lakers vs Memphis GrizzliesWin1st quarter · Over 56.51.36—
- Jan 04 · Washington Wizards vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWinOver 227.5×1.85+0.85 u
- Jan 04 · Sacramento Kings vs Milwaukee BucksWinUnder 239.51.36—
- Jan 04 · Brooklyn Nets vs Denver NuggetsLossUnder 236.5×1.85−1.00 u
- Jan 04 · Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City ThunderWinUnder 241.51.36—
- Jan 03 · Golden State Warriors vs Utah JazzLossOver 232.5×1.71−1.00 u
- Jan 03 · Chicago Bulls vs Charlotte HornetsLossChicago Bulls +9.51.26—
- Jan 03 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Boston CelticsLossLos Angeles Clippers +9.5×1.70−1.00 u
- Jan 03 · Toronto Raptors vs Atlanta HawksLossUnder 247.51.32—
- Jan 03 · Golden State Warriors vs Utah JazzLossOver 233.5×1.79−1.00 u
- Jan 03 · Chicago Bulls vs Charlotte HornetsLossChicago Bulls +8.51.31—
- Jan 03 · Toronto Raptors vs Atlanta HawksLossUnder 246.5×1.86−1.00 u
- Jan 03 · Miami Heat vs Minnesota TimberwolvesWinUnder 249.51.36—
- Jan 03 · Golden State Warriors vs Utah JazzLossOver 234.5×1.74−1.00 u
- Jan 03 · Los Angeles Clippers vs Boston CelticsLossLos Angeles Clippers +8.51.32—